Impact of the American anti-smoking campaign on lung cancer mortality

Customary statistics on smoking practices are limited because they do not correlate well with the frequency of smoking-related diseases. Our study developed outcome measures based on lung cancer mortality and used them to assess the anti-smoking campaign. Changes in mortality from lung cancer were used to assess significant smoking among 5-year birth cohorts of white men born from 1901 to 1942. We used each cohort's lung cancer mortality rate at ages 40-44 to indicate its earlier smoking. A lung cancer mortality ratio was developed to describe each cohort's continued smoking from ages 40-44 to 55-59. These ratios were then compared with the durations of the cohorts' exposure to the anti-smoking campaign that began in 1965. Lung cancer mortality in white men ages 40-44 peaked in 1970 and declined continuously thereafter, indicating that the anti-smoking campaign promptly reduced significant smoking among younger men. However, the lung cancer mortality ratio indicates that only half of smokers in the specified birth cohorts were able to quit by ages 55-59, despite receiving ever more intense anti-smoking messages. The anti-smoking campaign produced moderate benefits among younger white male smokers but fewer benefits among older smokers because of the existence of a large number of inveterate smokers.