Increasing inequalities in risk of murder in Britain: trends in the demographic and spatial distribution of murder, 1981–2000
Introduction
Deaths due to homicide occupy a peculiar position in British society as one of the rarest yet highest profiles causes of death. Although murders are relatively uncommon events we are constantly surrounded by a mêlée of real life and fictional murders, in news reports, crime fiction, television dramas and on the big screen. Despite this considerable public presence there has been little academic study of these deaths in Britain.
Internationally murder has been studied within a range of academic disciplines, including sociology, history, anthropology, psychology, criminology, forensics, criminal justice, legal studies, public policy and political science. Perhaps surprisingly violence has rarely been considered as a health issue (Macdonald, 2002). This paper approaches the analysis of murder in Britain from the perspective of public health, considering murder not as a crime but as a cause of death. The analysis seeks to examine the demographic, spatial and temporal trends in these deaths in Britain over the last two decades considering the age and sex of murder victims, the characteristics of the injuries leading to their deaths, the socioeconomic status of the areas in which they lived and how the distribution of murder has changed over time.
Section snippets
Murder as a social barometer
A common theme in the study of murder is that murder can be read as a form of social barometer, indicating something of the quality of social relations, whether at the micro- or macro-level, within a society. The analysis of international patterns, or the geography of murder at the national level, is one component of this form of comparison. Fig. 1 shows homicide rates in selected countries for 1997, revealing a remarkable range of rates, with three countries standing out. The murder rate in
Recent trends in murder rates over time
There have been dramatic changes in the incidence of homicide in several countries in recent decades, in particular Russia and the USA. In England and Wales, however, data suggest there have been gradual but significant changes in the incidence of homicide. Data for England and Wales from the official Home Office homicide series, which covers 35 years, are presented in Fig. 2. This shows both the number of murders and the rate of murders, which have doubled over this time period.
The rate of
Data and methods
In this analysis we address the following questions: who was murdered, when were they murdered, where were they murdered, with what were they murdered and, finally why were they murdered. Using digitised mortality records from ONS we look at the 13,000 murders that occurred in Britain between 1981 and 2000 (we also report other figures for later years). Estimates of the numbers of murders in the analysis are based upon those deaths where the cause of death was either recorded as homicide (ICD9
The age and sex profile of murder victims in Britain
Fig. 3a shows the rates of murder in Britain by single year of age and sex, smoothed—using a simple binomial one pass filter whereby rates are calculated as half the rate of that single year plus a quarter of the rates for people a year younger and year older. Unsmoothed rates are shown in Fig. 3b, although smoothed rates are preferable as the denominator population refer to mid-year and not calendar year. For these years the overall twenty-year average murder rate was 12.6 murders per year per
Discussion
Despite public concern about violence in Britain little attention has been paid to the significance of the demographic and geographical patterns that underlie the composite rates of homicide. Murder has commonly been perceived as a matter of crime and criminology rather than as a marker of societal or public health. The immediate circumstances of particular deaths have therefore been a primary concern rather than the social and economic environment of murder as a cause of death.
The patterns
Policy implications
How can this analysis inform policies and interventions that might reduce the number of deaths due to homicide? These findings suggest policies aimed at tackling inequality and poverty are of paramount importance. The Home Office has recently published a document Reducing homicide: a review of the possibilities (Brookman and Maguire, 2003) in which the authors state: “…there is evidence of a strong correlation between homicide rates and levels of poverty and social inequality, and it may be
Conclusion
Academic researchers frequently accuse the media, in particular the tabloid newspapers, of hysteria and moral panic regarding violence but this analysis demonstrates that there has indeed been a substantial rise in murder in Britain concentrated among young males and in poor areas. Murder remains rare in Britain but the increasing risk of violent death among some population groups is a cause for concern and a neglected issue within British health research. The increase in murder in Britain
Acknowledgements
Mary Shaw is funded by the South West Public Health Observatory.
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