Population pressure, agricultural intensification and changes in rural systems in Bangladesh
Introduction
Bangladesh, a country of 147 million (UNPRB, 2006), is dominated by a smallholder intensive subsistence agricultural economy in which agricultural growth is seen as the key to rural socio-economic development.1 Agricultural growth involves intensive (frequent) cultivation of land by using improved technologies (Turner and Doolittle, 1978). It increases total farm production and productivities (output per unit) of land and labor inputs; hence, it ensures food security, and increases farmers’ economic opportunities and their aspiration levels toward material gains to lead a better life. Sustained agricultural growth induces rural system change that includes changes in bio-physical environment (land use/land cover), economic infra-structure (cropping intensity, land, labor, and technological productivity, farm income), and social conditions (literacy, housing, transport) in rural areas. Rural system changes represent farmers’ production and social behavior (Ruttan, 1984).
Over the past 30 years, in the midst of myriad environmental and institutional constraints, Bangladesh population has doubled; its food and commodity production increased; and its rural areas have experienced discernible changes in socio-economic conditions. For balanced agricultural and rural development planning, in which agricultural growth and smallholder’s socio-economic well-being would continue simultaneously (as per the national standard), the level of agricultural growth and rural socio-economic change should be understood in the context of demographic, market, environmental, institutional, and technological factors that configure them.
Existing studies on Bangladesh agriculture and rural development have examined the conditions of micro-level agricultural intensification and change (Ali, 1987, Ali, 1995, Turner and Ali, 1996); the public policy and political economic issues of rural development, micro-credit, and energy systems; and the role of women in agriculture and socio-economic development (Ahmed et al., 2001a, Ahmed et al., 2001b, Amin et al., 1994, Bayes, 2001, Biswas et al., 2001, Blair, 1985, Hye, 1989, Matin and Hulme, 2003, Rahman, 1996a, Rahman, 1996b, Rahman, 1999, Sharif, 1992). These studies have not explored the nature and causes of rural system changes. An understanding of these changes may have significant policy implications.
The present study examines the nature and determinants of rural system changes in Bangladesh between 1975 and 2000. Based on 18 selected indicators of land use/land cover changes, agricultural growth and rural development, the study aims to construct an index to measure the degree of rural systems change, and to examine the effects of population growth, market price incentives, environmental constraints, technology, political economy and institutional forces on such changes. The study examines 64 administrative districts’ census data; and thus, its results have much larger implications for national economic development planning.
Section snippets
Conceptual framework
The study is based on the premises that agricultural change causes rural system changes; that factors affecting agricultural intensification also affect the rural systems; and that the spatial patterns of agricultural growth and rural socio-economic change are reflective of household production and social behavior. Under these premises, the factors influencing agricultural change are identified at the onset of this study. Theories explaining agricultural change center around two ideal
Population pressure
During 1975–2000, Bangladesh population has grown from 71.5 million to 133.5 million (BBS, 1975–2001). Population grew >100% in Dhaka, Chittagong, and Bandarban districts; between 50–100% in northeastern and western districts; and <50% in southern districts. High population density (>1443 people/km2) in districts under Dhaka, Chittagong, Comilla, Tangail, Mymensigh, Pabna, Rajshahi, and Faridpur; low density (<843 people/km2) in Khulna, Patuakhali, Bandarban and Rangamati regions; and moderate
An induced rural system change model
An induced model of rural system change (RSC) is proposed and tested in this study. The model assumes that rural system changes in Bangladesh are outcomes of farmers’ mixed production behavior which is induced by growing population and market demands; and that farmers’ land use decision making behavior is modified by the mediating effects of prevailing political economic, environmental, institutional, technological conditions. The model examines three paths, each linking population and market
Variables and data
The proposed model has specified eight independent variables and a dependent variable (Fig. 3, Path III; and Table 2). The independent variables include two inducing (driving force) variables representing population pressure and market demands, and six mediating variables representing political economy, environmental constraints, technology, and institutional support conditions. The magnitude of population growth and market demands are measured, respectively, by percent change in population
Measures of agricultural growth
Several studies have measured agricultural productivity as an average output of land, labor and technology inputs; and agricultural growth as increases in cropping intensity and agricultural productivity (Dayal, 1984, Turner and Doolittle, 1978). In this study, agricultural growth is measured as an average of percent change in cropping intensity, land, labor, technological productivity and per capita farm income derived from 21 field crops and fisheries during 1975–2000. The cropping intensity
Land use/land cover change and agricultural growth
During 1975–2000, as the national population of Bangladesh grew >80% and the number of municipalities increased from 74 to 223, significant land use/land cover change occurred throughout the country. Both net cropped and forest areas declined, respectively, by 15% and 60% as they were converted into urban and rural settlements which expanded by 25% (BBS, 1975, 2001). Rapid conversion of farmland and forestry into urban uses was most prominent in and around Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna cities and
Theoretical and policy implications
The present study has several important theoretical implications toward the induced intensification studies. First, its results supported the basic argument of the induced intensification thesis that population growth and market incentives induce agricultural growth (cropping intensity and land productivity increases) as contended by Turner and Ali (1996). Second, the model has expanded the scope of the induced intensification thesis by examining the role of growing population and market
Conclusion
This study has examined the conditions of agricultural growth and rural development in Bangladesh over the past 25 years. Aggregate district level data suggest that both cropping intensity and land productivity have increased over time in response to population growth and market forces; however, the intensification process has been hindered by severe environmental and social constraints. Institutional support from the government and NGOs has facilitated major technological change which reduced
Acknowledgements
I thank three anonymous reviewers and the editor for their valuable comments and suggestions on the earlier drafts of the paper. I also thank Barbara Hart, Charlotte Chambers and Muhammad Tauhidur Rahman for their assistance during its preparation.
References (101)
Population Pressure, environmental constraints and agricultural change in Bangladesh: examples from three agro-ecosystems
Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment
(1995)- et al.
Poor women’s participation in income-generating projects and their fertility regulation in rural Bangladesh: evidence from a recent survey
World Development
(1994) Infrastructure and rural development: insights from a Grameen Bank village phone initiative in Bangladesh
Agricultural Economics
(2001)- et al.
Model for empowering rural poor through renewable energy technologies in Bangladesh
Environmental Science and Policy
(2001) Participation, public policy, political economy and development in rural Bangladesh, 1958–85
World Development
(1985)Political ecology: an emerging research agenda in Third World Studies
Political Geography
(1992)- et al.
Impediments and innovations in International Rivers: the waters of South Asia
World Development
(2000) - et al.
Runoff and soil erosion on cultivated rainfed terraces in the Middle Hills of Nepal
Applied Geography
(2003) - et al.
Global change and the intensification of agriculture in the tropics
Global Environmental Change, Part A
(2005) - et al.
Programs for the poorest: learning from the IGVGD program in Bangladesh
World Development
(2003)
Micro-credit initiatives for equitable and sustainable development: Who pays?
World Development
A downward spiral? Research evidence on the relationships between poverty and natural resource degradation
Food Policy
Impact and implications of price policy and land degradation on agricultural growth in developing countries
Agricultural Economics
Gender, socioeconomic development and health-seeking behavior in Bangladesh
Social Science and Medicine
Micro-credit and emotional well-being: experience of poor rural women from Matlab, Bangladesh
World Development
Urban expansion and agricultural change: an example from Bangladesh
Oriental Geographer
Intensive paddy agriculture in Shyampur, Bangladesh
Technological change in agriculture and land degradation in Bangladesh: a case study
Land Degradation and Development
Environment and Development
The political ecology of peasant-herder conflicts in the northern Ivory Coast
Annals of the Association of American Geographers
Land Degradation and Society
The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change Under Population Pressure
Agrarian Impasse in Bengal: Institutional Constraints to Technology Change
The Geography of Soils of Bangladesh
Agricultural Disaster Management in Bangladesh
Intensification and disintensification in Pacific agriculture: a theoretical approach
Pacific Viewpoint
The nature of farming systems and views of their change
Introduction: contextualizing and interrogating the GKI case for redistributive land reform
Journal of Agrarian Change
Peasant farm organization
Spatial structure of agricultural productivity in India
Annals of the Association of American Geographers
Land degradation in the humid tropics
Environmental Degradation and Conflict. The case of Bangladesh–India
Poverty and the distribution of land
Journal of Agrarian Change
The Dynamics of Agricultural Change: The Historical Perspectives
World agriculture: production and productivity in the late 1980s
Geography
Agricultural Development: An International Perspective
Political ecology and environmental management in the Loess Plateau, China
Human Ecology
Do land use changes in the Himalayas affect downstream flooding? – traditional understanding and new evidences
Poverty, Environment and Development: Proposals for Action
Green Revolution in Bangladesh
Shaping the agrarian future: institutional frameworks for rural development
Cited by (46)
Nexus of mixed-use vitality, carbon emissions and sustainability of mixed-use rural communities: The case of Zhejiang
2022, Journal of Cleaner ProductionCitation Excerpt :As the pioneer for the implementation of rural revitalization policies in China, rural communities of Zhejiang province in eastern coastal China have undergone a socioeconomic transformation of regional urbanization, agricultural industrialization, and commercialization, therefore highlighting the essential role of mixed-use planning (of commercial and living space) for the sustainable development of rural communities (Marton, 1998; Long, 2014; Zhu et al., 2020). For example, the convergence of cottage industries and the commerce, catering, and service industries gradually replaced traditional agricultural operations, resulting in the overlapping of human settlements and the household economy (Ali, 2007; Long et al., 2009; Shi and Gao, 2020). In particular, sixty percent of communities in rural Zhejiang rely on local industries or markets that drive work-live mixed use inside the community (Wei et al., 2007; Si et al., 2015).
Non-point source pollution in response to rural transformation development: A comprehensive analysis of China's traditional farming area
2021, Journal of Rural StudiesCitation Excerpt :RTD is a term that captures the changes of rural population, industry and employment structure, and the spatial reorganization of land use, which signifies the interactive and coordinated development of urban and rural areas (Long et al., 2011). Accordingly, regional urbanization level, agricultural industrialization, and commercialization, land use transition, urban-rural relations are the major components of RTD assessment (Ali, 2007; Long et al., 2011; You et al., 2018). We selected 15 indicators to quantify the rural transition (Table 3), and the reasons are as follows: Regional urbanization is a comprehensive indicator that can reflect the rural-to-urban population mobility, non-agricultural industries development, and the employment pattern transformation of surplus rural labor.
Socio-cultural roots of rural settlement dispersion in Sichuan Basin: The perspective of Chinese lineage
2019, Land Use PolicyCitation Excerpt :It is not exclusively involved in human geography, but increasingly becomes an interdisciplinary focus, such as the physical geography, rural sociology, agricultural geography, economic geography and ecology (Drennan, 1988; Hunter, 1967; Jones, 2010; Roberts, 2013). Given the fundamental role of agriculture in rural systems (Ali, 2007; Zomeni et al., 2008), rural settlement patterns in many regions, especially for developing countries, are relatively dispersed (Gkartzios and Scott, 2009; Muir, 2000), as rural settlements are scattered across and embedded into the extensive agricultural landscape to favor farming activities. Some studies believe that plains are more favorable for a compact pattern, while rugged terrain encourages dispersed settlements because of the small size and unequal distribution of arable land (Roberts, 2013).