Econometric critique of the economic change model of mortality

https://doi.org/10.1016/0277-9536(92)90125-AGet rights and content

Abstract

The application of time-series data and analysis to study the effects of changes in unemployment rates on mortality rates has been a controversial issue in health-unemployment research for many years. This article presents new criticism against previous aggregate time-series regression models and concludes that these models are misspecified in functional form, and the t-ratios used in significance tests are grossly overstated. Future empirical analysis of the Economic Change Model of Mortality, i.e. the aggregate, time-series relationship between mortality rates and economic variables must pay more attention to the salient characteristics of time-series data and implications for regression results.

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      In the 1970s and 1980s Harvey Brenner claimed that recessions caused increases in both infant and adult mortality in Britain (Brenner, 1983) and other countries. Though reports by Junankar (1991) and McAvinchey (1984) supported Brenner's argument to some extent, Brenner's studies stirred controversy and were criticised for deficient presentation of data and methods, use of arbitrarily chosen lags, and improper detrending (Eyer, 1976a, 1976b, 1977, 1984; Forbes & McGregor, 1984; Gravelle, Hutchinson, & Stern, 1981; Kagan, 1987; Kasl, 1979; Lew, 1979; Sogaard, 1992; Wagstaff, 1985). One of Brenner's critics was Jay Winter (1983), who found infant mortality in Britain falling quickly during recessions in 1920–1950, particularly in Northumberland in the early 1930s, Glamorgan in the mid-1930s and Durham in the late 1930s, despite high levels of unemployment in these areas.

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