Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Temperature, air pollution and total mortality during summers in Sydney, 1994–2004

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
International Journal of Biometeorology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study investigated the effect of temperature and air pollutants on total mortality in summers in Sydney, Australia. Daily data on weather variables, mortality and air pollution for the Sydney metropolitan area from 1 January 1994 to 31 December 2004 were supplied by Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Bureau of Statistics, and Environment Protection Agency of New South Wales, respectively. We examined the association of total mortality with weather indicators and air pollution using generalised additive models (GAMs). A time-series classification and regression tree (CART) model was developed to explore the interaction effects of temperature and air pollution that impacted on mortality. Our results show that the average increase in total daily mortality was 0.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.6–1.3%] and 22% (95% CI: 6.4–40.5%) for a 1 °C increase in daily maximum temperature and 1 part per hundred million (pphm) increase in daily average concentration of sulphur dioxide (SO2), respectively. Time-series CART results show that maximum temperature and SO2 on the current day had significant interaction effects on total mortality. There were 7.3% and 12.1% increases in daily average mortality when maximum temperature was over 32°C and mean SO2 exceeded 0.315 pphm, respectively. Daily maximum temperature was statistically significantly associated with daily deaths in Sydney during summers between 1994 and 2004. Elevated daily maximum temperature combined with high SO2 concentrations appeared to have contributed to the increased mortality observed in Sydney during this period.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Baccini M, Biggeri A, Accetta G, Lagazio C, Lerxtundi A, Schwartz J (2006) Comparison of alternative modelling techniques in estimating short-term effect of air pollution with application to the Italian meta-analysis data (MISA Study). Epidemiol Prev 30:279–288

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Ballester F, Saez M, Perez-Hoyos S, Iniguez C, Gandarillas A, Tobias A, Bellido J, Taracido M, Arribas F, Daponte A, Alonso E, Canada A, Guillen-Grima F, Cirera L, Perez-Boillos M, Saurina C, Gomez F, Tenias J (2002) The EMECAM project: a multicentre study on air pollution and mortality in Spain: combined results for particulates and for sulfur dioxide. Occup Environ Med 59:300–308

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Borja-Aburto V, Loomis D, Bangdiwala S, Shy C, Rascon-Pacheco R (1997) Ozone, suspended particulates, and daily mortality in Mexico City. Am J Epidemiol 145:258–268

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Braga A, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J (2002) The effect of weather on respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in 12 U.S. cities. Environ Health Perspect 110:859–863

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Breiman L, Fredman J, Olshen R, Stone C (1984) Classification and regression trees. Chapman & Hall (Wardworth), New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Carson C, Hajat S, Armstrong B, Wilkinson P (2006) Declining vulnerability to temperature-related mortality in London over the 20th Century. Am J Public Health 164:77–84

    Google Scholar 

  • Chatfield C (1975) The analysis of time series: theory and practice. Chapman & Hall, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Davis R, Knappenberger P, Michaels P, Novicoff W (2003) Changing heat-related mortality in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 111:1712–1718

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Diaz J, Garcia R, Velazuez F, Hernandez E, Lopez C (2002) Effects of extremely hot days on people older than 65 years in Seville (Spain) form 1986 to 1997. Int J Biometeorol 46:145–149

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Dominici F, McDermott A, Zeger S, Samet J (2002) On the use of generalized additive models in time-series studies of air pollution and health. Am J Epidemiol 156:193–203

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Dominici F, McDermott A, Hastie T (2004) Improved semi-parametric time series models of air pollution and mortality. J Am Stat Assoc 468:938–948

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dominici F, McDermott A, Daniels M, Zeger S, Samet J (2005) Revised analyses of the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study: mortality among residents of 90 cities. J Toxicol Environ Health A 68:1071–1092

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Eckel S, Louis T (2007) Identifying effect modifiers in air pollution time-series using a two-stage analysis. Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers. Working Paper 148:1–29

    Google Scholar 

  • Fouillet A, Gey G, Laurent F, Pavillon G, Bellec S, Guihenneue-Jouyanux C, Clavel J, Jougla E (2006) Excess mortality related to the August 2003 heat wave in France. Int Arch Occup Environ Health 80:16–24

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Fouillet A, Rey G, Jougla E, Frayssinet P, Bessemoulin P, Hémon D (2007) A predictive model relating daily fluctuations in summer temperatures and mortality rates. BMC Public Health DOI 10.1186/1471–2458–7–114

  • Fouillet A, Rey G, Wagner V, Laaidi K, Empereur-Bissonnet P, Tertre A, Frayssinet P, Bessemoulin P, Laurent F, Crouy-Chanel P, Jougla E, Hémon D (2008) Has the impact of heat waves on mortality changed in France since the European heat wave of summer 2003? A study of the 2006 heat wave. Int J Epidemiol IJE Advance Access published online on January 13 2008, DOI 10.1093/ije/dym253

  • Gaffen D, Santer B, Boyle J, Christy J, Graham N, Ross R (2000) Multidecadal changes in the vertical temperature structure of the tropical troposphere. Science 287:1242–1245

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Guest C, Willson K, Woodward A, Hennessy K, Kalkstein L, Skinner C, McMichael A (1999) Climate and mortality in Australia: retrospective study, 1979–1990, and predicted impacts in five major cities in 2030. Clim Res 13:1–15

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanigan I, Hall G, Dear K (2006) A comparison of methods for calculating population exposure estimates of daily weather for health research. Int J Health Geogr 13:5:38

    Google Scholar 

  • Hu W, Tong S, Mengersen K, Oldenburg B, Dale P (2006) Mosquito species (Diptera: Culicidae) and the transmission of Ross River virus in Brisbane, Australia. J Med Entomol 43:375–381

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001) Climate Change 2007. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Kelsall J, Samet J, Zeger S, Xu J (2000) Air pollution and mortality in Philadelphia, 1974–1988. Am J Epidemiol 146:750–762

    Google Scholar 

  • Kunst A, Looman C, Mackenbach J (1993) Outdoor air temperature and mortality in The Netherlands: a time-series analysis. Am J Epidemiol 137:331–341

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • McMichael A, Haines A, Kovats R, Slooff R (1996) Climate changes and human health. WHO, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • Moolgavkar S (2000) Air pollution and daily mortality in three U.S. counties. Environ Health Perspect 108:777–784

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan G, Corbett S, Wlodarczyk J, Lewis P (1998) Air pollution and daily mortality in Sydney, Australia, 1989 through 1993. Am J Public Health 88:759–763

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ramsay T, Burnett R, Krewski D (2003) The effect of concurvity in generalized additive models linking mortality to ambient particulate matter. Epidemiology 14:18–23

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Ren C, Williams G, Tong S (2006) Does particulate matter modify the association between temperature and cardiorespiratory diseases. Environ Health Perspect 114:1690–1696

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Rooney C, McMichael A, Kovats R, Coleman M (1998) Excess mortality in England and Wales, and in Greater London, during the 1995 heatwave. J Epidemiol Community Health 52:482–486

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Schwartz J (1999) Air pollution and hospital admissions for heart disease in eight U.S. counties. Epidemiol 10:17–22

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Simpson R, Williams G, Petroeschevsky A, Best T, Morgan G, Denison L, Hinwood A, Neville G, Neller A (2005) The short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in four Australian cities. Aust N Z J Public Health 29:205–212

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • S-Plus Insightful Corporation 2003 S-Plus 6 for Windows computer program, version 6. By S-Plus Insightful Corporation, Seattle, WA

  • Vandentorren S, Suzan F, Medina S, Pascal M, Maulpoix A, Cohen J, Ledrans M (2004) Mortality in 13 French cities during the August 2003 heat wave. Am J Public Health 94:1518–1520

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Vigotti M, Muggeo V, Cusimano R (2006) The effect of birthplace on heat tolerance and mortality in Milan, Italy, 1980–1989. Int J Biometeorol 50:335–341

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Whitman S, Good G, Donoghue E, Benbow N, Shou W, Mou S (1997) Mortality in Chicago attributed to the July 1995 heat wave. Am J Public Health 87:1515–1518

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zmirou D, Schwartz J, Saez M, Zanobetti A, Wojtyniak B, Touloumi G, Spix C, Ponce de Leon A, Le Moullec Y, Bacharova L, Schouten J, Ponka A, Katsouyanni K (1998) Time-series analysis of air pollution and cause-specific mortality. Epidemiology 9:495–503

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Environment Protection Authority of New South Wales and Bureau of Meteorology of New South Wales for providing the data on mortality, air pollutants and climate, respectively. The authors thank Prof. Neils Beck for his valuable comments on the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shilu Tong.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Hu, W., Mengersen, K., McMichael, A. et al. Temperature, air pollution and total mortality during summers in Sydney, 1994–2004. Int J Biometeorol 52, 689–696 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-008-0161-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-008-0161-8

Keywords

Navigation