Modelled relative and absolute changes by Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) tertile and change in Slope Index of Inequality (SII) under three child poverty reduction scenarios between 2024 and 2033, relative to a baseline scenario of increasing child poverty
| IMD tertile | Relative change Risk ratio (RR), with 95% CI | Absolute change Risk difference (RD) per 100 000 exposed, with 95% CI | ||||
| Low | Medium | High | Low | Medium | High | |
| Infant mortality | ||||||
| 1 (most deprived) | 0.990 (0.984 to 0.996) | 0.985 (0.977 to 0.994) | 0.981 (0.970 to 0.992) | −3.878 (−6.098 to −1.560) | −5.605 (−8.814 to –2.255) | −7.333 (-11.531,–2.950) |
| 2 | 0.991 (0.986 to 0.996) | 0.987 (0.980 to 0.995) | 0.983 (0.974 to 0.993) | −2.721 (−4.279 to −1.095) | −3.933 (−6.185 to –1.582) | −5.145 (−8.091 to –2.070) |
| 3 (least deprived) | 0.994 (0.990 to 0.997) | 0.991 (0.986 to 0.996) | 0.988 (0.981 to 0.995) | −1.824 (−2.869 to −0.734) | −2.637 (−4.147 to –1.061) | −3.450 (−5.425 to –1.388) |
| Children looked after | ||||||
| 1 (most deprived) | 0.989 (0.982 to 0.995) | 0.984 (0.974 to 0.993) | 0.979 (0.966 to 0.991) | −3.425 (−5.539 to −1.450) | −4.951 (−8.007 to –2.095) | −6.478 (-10.474 to –2.741) |
| 2 | 0.990 (0.984 to 0.996) | 0.985 (0.976 to 0.994) | 0.981 (0.969 to 0.992) | −2.385 (−3.856 to −1.009) | −3.447 (−5.574 to –1.459) | −4.510 (−7.292 to –1.908) |
| 3 (least deprived) | 0.991 (0.985 to 0.996) | 0.986 (0.978 to 0.994) | 0.982 (0.971 to 0.992) | −1.600 (−2.588 to −0.677) | −2.313 (−3.740 to –0.979) | −3.026 (−4.893 to –1.281) |
| Nutritional anaemias (ages <16) | ||||||
| 1 (most deprived) | 0.979 (0.974 to 0.985) | 0.970 (0.963 to 0.978) | 0.961 (0.951 to 0.971) | −0.355 (−0.445 to −0.260) | −0.513 (−0.643 to –0.376) | −0.671 (−0.841 to –0.491) |
| 2 | 0.975 (0.969 to 0.982) | 0.964 (0.955 to 0.974) | 0.953 (0.942 to 0.966) | −0.247 (−0.310 to −0.181) | −0.357 (−0.448 to –0.262) | −0.467 (−0.586 to –0.343) |
| 3 (least deprived) | 0.979 (0.974 to 0.985) | 0.970 (0.962 to 0.978) | 0.961 (0.951 to 0.971) | −0.166 (−0.208 to −0.121) | −0.240 (−0.300 to –0.176) | −0.313 (−0.393 to –0.230) |
| Emergency admissions (ages <16) | ||||||
| 1 (most deprived) | 0.997 (0.994 to 1.000) | 0.996 (0.992 to 0.999) | 0.994 (0.989 to 0.999) | −25.278 (−47.325 to 3.114) | −36.539 (−68.408 to –4.501) | −47.801 (−89.491 to –5.889) |
| 2 | 0.998 (0.996 to 1.000) | 0.997 (0.994 to 1.000) | 0.996 (0.992 to 0.999) | −17.614 (−32.977 to 2.170) | −25.462 (−47.669 to –3.137) | −33.309 (−62.360 to –4.103) |
| 3 (least deprived) | 0.998 (0.997 to 1.000) | 0.998 (0.995 to 1.000) | 0.997 (0.994 to 1.000) | −11.811 (−22.113 to 1.455) | −17.073 (−31.965 to –2.103) | −22.336 (−41.816 to –2.752) |
|
Change in SII
Cases per 100 000 exposed, with 95% CI | ||||||
| Outcome | Low | Medium | High | |||
| Infant mortality | −2.95 (−4.63 to −1.18) | −4.26 (−6.70 to −1.71) | −5.57 (−8.76 to –2.24) | |||
| Children looked after | −2.57 (−4.15 to −1.09) | −3.71 (−6.00 to −1.57) | −4.85 (−7.84 to –2.05) | |||
| Nutritional anaemias (ages <16) | −0.27 (−0.33 to −0.19) | −0.38 (−0.48 to −0.28) | −0.50 (−0.63 to –0.37) | |||
| Emergency admissions (ages <16) | −18.96 (−35.49 to 2.34) | −27.40 (−51.30 to 3.38) | −35.84 (−67.11 to –4.42) | |||
Total changes by IMD tertile and changes in the Relative Index of Inequality (RII) are presented in online supplemental appendix table B,C, respectively.