Distribution of excess mortality rates in cities and provinces of South Korea (2020)
| Observed mortality | Predicted (expected) mortality | Excess mortality | |||
| (O) | (P)* | (95% PI) | (O–P) | ||
| South Korea | 588.2 | 584.1 | (564.7,603.4) | 4.1 | |
| Metropolitan cities | |||||
| 1 | Seoul | 468.8 | 468.6 | (453.7,483.8) | 0.1 |
| 2 | Busan | 674.3 | 671.3 | (642.3,699.5) | 3.0 |
| 3 | Daegu | 595.5 | 577.3 | (551.1,603.0) | 18.2 |
| 4 | Incheon | 532.3 | 532.2 | (516.2,548.5) | 0.0 |
| 5 | Gwangju | 535.3 | 520.2 | (491.7,548.5) | 15.1 |
| 6 | Daejeon | 515.1 | 521.5 | (499.6,542.9) | −6.4 |
| 7 | Ulsan | 464.4 | 460.8 | (416.0,506.1) | 3.6 |
| 8 | Sejong | 379.2 | 338.4 | (310.2,365.9) | 40.8 |
| Provinces | |||||
| 9 | Gyeonggi-do | 470.6 | 475.4 | (461.3,489.4) | −4.8 |
| 10 | Gangwon-do | 790.9 | 788.3 | (761.8,815.3) | 2.6 |
| 11 | Chungcheongbuk-do | 725.3 | 724.4 | (694.3,754.7) | 0.9 |
| 12 | Chungcheongnam-do | 755.6 | 752.7 | (720.7,784.4) | 2.9 |
| 13 | Jeollabuk-do | 811.9 | 813.7 | (780.8,846.4) | −1.8 |
| 14 | Jellanam-do | 939.8 | 897.7 | (856.4,938.2) | 42.1 |
| 15 | Gyeongsangbuk-do | 861.2 | 840.0 | (798.1,882.8) | 21.2 |
| 16 | Gyeongsangnam-do | 683.2 | 656.4 | (617.4,695.7) | 26.8 |
| 17 | Jeju-do | 588.1 | 608.3 | (579.7,636.8) | −20.2 |
Seoul is the capital of South Korea. Regions ending with ‘–do’ represent relatively rural provincial areas.
*Average of 10 000 iterations for annual predicted deaths using the SARIMA model.
PI, prediction interval; SARIMA, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average.