Modelled relative and absolute changes (95% CI) under three child poverty reduction scenarios between 2024 and 2033, relative to a baseline scenario of increasing child poverty
| Region | Relative change Risk ratio (RR), with 95% CI | Absolute change Risk difference (RD) per 100 000 exposed, with 95% CI | ||||
| Low | Medium | High | Low | Medium | High | |
| Infant mortality | ||||||
| National level | 0.991 (0.987 to 0.997) | 0.988 (0.981 to 0.995) | 0.984 (0.975 to 0.994) | −2.747 (−4.320 to −1.105) | −3.971 (−6.245 to –1.597) | −5.195 (−8.169 to –2.090) |
| East Midlands | 0.993 (0.988 to 0.997) | 0.989 (0.983 to 0.996) | 0.986 (0.978 to 0.994) | −2.589 (−4.072 to −1.042) | −3.743 (−5.886 to –1.506) | −4.897 (−7.700 to –1.970) |
| East of England | 0.992 (0.988 to 0.997) | 0.989 (0.982 to 0.995) | 0.985 (0.977 to 0.994) | −2.145 (−3.373 to −0.863) | −3.100 (−4.875 to –1.247) | −4.056 (−6.378 to –1.632) |
| London | 0.992 (0.987 to 0.997) | 0.988 (0.981 to 0.995) | 0.984 (0.976 to 0.994) | −2.607 (−4.099 to −1.049) | −3.768 (−5.925 to –1.516) | −4.929 (−7.751 to –1.983) |
| North East | 0.984 (0.976 to 0.994) | 0.977 (0.965 to 0.991) | 0.970 (0.954 to 0.988) | −3.780 (−5.945 to −1.521) | −5.464 (−8.593 to –2.198) | −7.148 (-11.241,–2.875) |
| North West | 0.990 (0.984 to 0.996) | 0.986 (0.977 to 0.994) | 0.981 (0.970 to 0.992) | −3.220 (−5.063 to −1.295) | −4.654 (−7.319 to –1.872) | −6.089 (−9.575 to –2.449) |
| South East | 0.993 (0.990 to 0.997) | 0.991 (0.985 to 0.996) | 0.988 (0.981 to 0.995) | −1.903 (−2.993 to −0.766) | −2.751 (−4.326 to –1.107) | −3.599 (−5.660 to –1.448) |
| South West | 0.992 (0.988 to 0.997) | 0.989 (0.983 to 0.996) | 0.985 (0.977 to 0.994) | −2.023 (−3.182 to −0.814) | −2.925 (−4.599 to –1.177) | −3.826 (−6.017 to –1.539) |
| West Midlands | 0.992 (0.988 to 0.997) | 0.989 (0.982 to 0.995) | 0.985 (0.977 to 0.994) | −3.663 (−5.760 to −1.473) | −5.295 (−8.326 to –2.130) | −6.927 (-10.892,–2.786) |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 0.990 (0.984 to 0.996) | 0.985 (0.976 to 0.994) | 0.980 (0.969 to 0.992) | −3.540 (−5.566 to −1.424) | −5.116 (−8.046 to –2.058) | −6.693 (-10.525,–2.692) |
| Children looked after (ages <16) | ||||||
| National level | 0.990 (0.983 to 0.996) | 0.985 (0.976 to 0.994) | 0.980 (0.969 to 0.992) | −2.380 (−3.849 to −1.007) | −3.441 (−5.564 to –1.456) | −4.502 (−7.279 to –1.905) |
| East Midlands | 0.990 (0.983 to 0.996) | 0.985 (0.976 to 0.994) | 0.981 (0.969 to 0.992) | −2.240 (−3.622 to −0.948) | −3.238 (−5.236 to –1.370) | −4.236 (−6.850 to –1.793) |
| East of England | 0.988 (0.981 to 0.995) | 0.983 (0.972 to 0.993) | 0.978 (0.964 to 0.991) | −1.875 (−3.032 to −0.793) | −2.710 (−4.382 to –1.147) | −3.545 (−5.733 to –1.500) |
| London | 0.988 (0.980 to 0.995) | 0.982 (0.971 to 0.993) | 0.977 (0.963 to 0.990) | −2.255 (−3.646 to −0.954) | −3.260 (−5.271 to –1.379) | −4.264 (−6.895 to –1.805) |
| North East | 0.993 (0.989 to 0.997) | 0.990 (0.984 to 0.996) | 0.987 (0.979 to 0.994) | −3.301 (−5.338 to −1.397) | −4.772 (−7.716 to –2.019) | −6.242 (-10.094,–2.642) |
| North West | 0.991 (0.985 to 0.996) | 0.987 (0.979 to 0.994) | 0.983 (0.972 to 0.993) | −2.783 (−4.500 to −1.178) | −4.023 (−6.504 to –1.702) | −5.262 (−8.509 to –2.227) |
| South East | 0.991 (0.986 to 0.996) | 0.987 (0.980 to 0.995) | 0.984 (0.973 to 0.993) | −1.660 (−2.685 to −0.703) | −2.400 (−3.881 to –1.016) | −3.140 (−5.077 to –1.329) |
| South West | 0.992 (0.986 to 0.996) | 0.988 (0.980 to 0.995) | 0.984 (0.974 to 0.993) | −1.775 (−2.870 to −0.751) | −2.566 (−4.149 to –1.086) | −3.356 (−5.427 to –1.420) |
| West Midlands | 0.986 (0.978 to 0.994) | 0.980 (0.968 to 0.991) | 0.974 (0.958 to 0.989) | −3.166 (−5.120 to −1.340) | −4.577 (−7.401 to –1.937) | −5.987 (−9.681 to –2.534) |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 0.989 (0.982 to 0.995) | 0.984 (0.974 to 0.993) | 0.979 (0.966 to 0.991) | −3.091 (−4.999 to −1.308) | −4.469 (−7.226 to –1.891) | −5.846 (−9.453 to –2.474) |
| Diagnoses of nutritional anaemia (ages <16) | ||||||
| National level | 0.978 (0.973 to 0.984) | 0.968 (0.961 to 0.977) | 0.959 (0.948 to 0.970) | −0.247 (−0.309 to −0.181) | −0.357 (−0.447 to –0.261) | −0.466 (−0.585 to –0.342) |
| East Midlands | 0.961 (0.951 to 0.971) | 0.943 (0.929 to 0.958) | 0.926 (0.907 to 0.945) | −0.232 (−0.291 to −0.170) | −0.336 (−0.421 to –0.246) | −0.439 (−0.551 to –0.322) |
| East of England | 0.974 (0.968 to 0.981) | 0.963 (0.953 to 0.973) | 0.951 (0.939 to 0.964) | −0.194 (−0.244 to −0.142) | −0.281 (−0.352 to –0.206) | −0.367 (−0.461 to –0.269) |
| London | 0.979 (0.974 to 0.985) | 0.970 (0.962 to 0.978) | 0.961 (0.951 to 0.971) | −0.234 (−0.293 to −0.171) | −0.338 (−0.424 to –0.247) | −0.442 (−0.554 to –0.324) |
| North East | 0.978 (0.972 to 0.984) | 0.968 (0.959 to 0.976) | 0.958 (0.947 to 0.969) | −0.342 (−0.429 to −0.251) | −0.494 (−0.620 to –0.362) | −0.647 (−0.811 to –0.474) |
| North West | 0.984 (0.980 to 0.988) | 0.977 (0.972 to 0.983) | 0.970 (0.963 to 0.978) | −0.288 (−0.362 to −0.211) | −0.417 (−0.523 to –0.306) | −0.545 (−0.684 to –0.400) |
| South East | 0.981 (0.976 to 0.986) | 0.973 (0.966 to 0.980) | 0.964 (0.955 to 0.974) | −0.172 (−0.216 to −0.126) | −0.249 (−0.312 to –0.182) | −0.325 (−0.408 to –0.238) |
| South West | 0.978 (0.972 to 0.984) | 0.968 (0.959 to 0.976) | 0.958 (0.947 to 0.969) | −0.184 (−0.231 to −0.135) | −0.266 (−0.333 to –0.195) | −0.348 (−0.436 to –0.255) |
| West Midlands | 0.974 (0.968 to 0.981) | 0.963 (0.954 to 0.973) | 0.952 (0.940 to 0.965) | −0.328 (−0.412 to −0.240) | −0.474 (−0.595 to –0.348) | −0.620 (−0.778 to –0.455) |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 0.975 (0.968 to 0.981) | 0.963 (0.954 to 0.973) | 0.952 (0.940 to 0.965) | −0.320 (−0.402 to −0.235) | −0.463 (−0.581 to –0.339) | −0.606 (−0.760 to –0.444) |
| Emergency admissions (ages <16) | ||||||
| National level | 0.998 (0.996 to 1.000) | 0.997 (0.994 to 1.000) | 0.996 (0.992 to 0.999) | −17.584 (−32.921 to 2.166) | −25.418 (−47.587 to –3.131) | −33.252 (−62.253 to –4.096) |
| East Midlands | 0.998 (0.995 to 1.000) | 0.996 (0.993 to 1.000) | 0.995 (0.991 to 0.999) | −16.554 (−30.992 to 2.039) | −23.929 (−44.800 to –2.948) | −31.304 (−58.607 to –3.856) |
| East of England | 0.998 (0.996 to 1.000) | 0.997 (0.994 to 1.000) | 0.996 (0.993 to 1.000) | −13.837 (−25.905 to 1.705) | −20.002 (−37.446 to –2.464) | −26.166 (−48.987 to –3.223) |
| London | 0.997 (0.994 to 1.000) | 0.995 (0.991 to 0.999) | 0.993 (0.988 to 0.999) | −16.650 (−31.172 to 2.051) | −24.068 (−45.060 to –2.965) | −31.486 (−58.947 to –3.879) |
| North East | 0.998 (0.996 to 1.000) | 0.997 (0.994 to 1.000) | 0.996 (0.992 to 0.999) | −24.374 (−45.633 to 3.003) | −35.233 (−65.962 to –4.340) | −46.092 (−86.291 to –5.678) |
| North West | 0.998 (0.996 to 1.000) | 0.997 (0.995 to 1.000) | 0.996 (0.993 to 1.000) | −20.556 (−38.485 to 2.532) | −29.714 (−55.631 to –3.661) | −38.872 (−72.776 to –4.789) |
| South East | 0.998 (0.997 to 1.000) | 0.997 (0.995 to 1.000) | 0.997 (0.994 to 1.000) | −12.262 (−22.957 to 1.511) | −17.725 (−33.184 to –2.184) | −23.188 (−43.411 to –2.857) |
| South West | 0.998 (0.997 to 1.000) | 0.998 (0.996 to 1.000) | 0.997 (0.994 to 1.000) | −13.103 (−24.530 to 1.614) | −18.940 (−35.459 to –2.333) | −24.777 (−46.387 to –3.052) |
| West Midlands | 0.997 (0.995 to 1.000) | 0.996 (0.992 to 0.999) | 0.995 (0.990 to 0.999) | −23.390 (−43.790 to 2.881) | −33.810 (−63.299 to –4.165) | −44.231 (−82.807 to –5.449) |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 0.997 (0.994 to 1.000) | 0.996 (0.992 to 0.999) | 0.994 (0.989 to 0.999) | −22.828 (−42.738 to 2.812) | −32.998 (−61.778 to –4.065) | −43.168 (−80.818 to –5.318) |
Total changes per population exposed are presented in online supplemental appendix 2 table 2A.