Table 2

Univariable linear regression of factors associated with excess mortality per 100 000 for all countries

VariableChange in excess mortality per 100 000 for one-unit change in variableP value95% CI
V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index (LDI)−1.500.016−2.71 to −0.29
EIU Democracy Index−20.30.009−35.5 to −5.15
Age ≥65 years (%)4.370.60−0.99 to 9.73
Age ≥80 years (%)10.20.21−5.84 to 26.3
Log population density (ppl/sqm)−13.50.22−35.2 to 8.23
Population female (%)8.800.040.47 to 17.1
GDP per capita (current US $)−0.002<0.001−0.004 to −0.001
Gini index1.850.49−3.49 to 7.18
Cumulative COVID-19 cases0.010.0020.005 to 0.02
Prevalence of cardiovascular disease (%)16.20.0017.18 to 25.2
Prevalence of chronic respiratory disease (%)−5.830.23−15.4 to 3.77
Prevalence of diabetes and kidney diseases (%)8.580.08−0.97 to 18.1
Prevalence of neurological disorders (%)5.020.20−2.75 to 12.8
Prevalence of cancer (%)7.280.021.19 to 13.4
Prevalence of adult obesity (BMI >30, %)0.690.33−3.45 to 4.83
Age-standardised mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution per 100 000 population0.700.13−0.22 to 1.62
Age standardised prevalence of tobacco smoking among persons aged 15 and older (%)5.810.0032.07 to 9.56
UHC Service Index−4.980.02−8.95 to −1.02
Current health expenditure per capita (US$)−0.020.003−0.03 to −0.007
Out-of-pocket expenditure (% current health expenditure)2.120.030.24 to 3.99
Population in receipt of at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine (%)−1.920.006−3.26 to −0.58
Proportion fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (%)−1.130.12−2.57 to 0.30
Stringency Index (at 1000th case)0.950.17−0.41 to 0.23
  • BMI, body mass index; EIU, Economist Intelligence Unit; GDP, gross domestic product; UHC, Universal Health Coverage.