Observed and predicted age-standardised mortality rates and numbers of deaths (with 95% confidence intervals) from all smoking-related cancers combined by sex and 5 year period, 2015–2044
| Observed | Projected | % | |||||
| 2015–2019 | 2020–2024 | 2025–2029 | 2030–2034 | 2035–2039 | 2040–2044 | Change* | |
| Age standardised rate per 100 000† | |||||||
| Men | 114.1 | 104.1 (100.2–108.3) | 97.0 (92.7–101.5) | 92.0 (87.3–97.2) | 88.0 (82.8–93.8) | 84.8 (79.0–91.2) | −26.3 |
| <55 years | 12.9 | 12.0 (11.0–13.1) | 11.5 (10.4–12.9) | 11.2 (10.0–12.6) | 11.2 (10.4–12.2) | 11.1 (10.3–12.1) | −14.6 |
| 55–64 years | 178.9 | 165.3 (158.1–172.9) | 153.1 (144.0–162.8) | 143.8 (132.7–155.9) | 137.3 (121.9–155.7) | 133.2 (118.3–151.3) | −28.2 |
| 65–74 years | 432.3 | 405.5 (393.4–418.1) | 384.7 (371.1–398.9) | 364.4 (347.8–381.8) | 343.8 (322.9–366.1) | 325.7 (300.5–353.4) | −24.3 |
| 75+ years | 1005.5 | 898.8 (870.3–928.4) | 824.6 (796.8–853.5) | 782.7 (753.7–812.8) | 747.5 (717.3–779.1) | 720.6 (685.9–757.1) | −28.8 |
| Women | 76.5 | 71.8 (68.6–75.2) | 67.5 (63.9–71.4) | 64.0 (60.1–68.3) | 60.9 (56.7–65.4) | 57.8 (53.6–62.5) | −24.5 |
| <55 years | 10.7 | 9.4 (8.7–10.2) | 8.8 (8.1–9.6) | 8.7 (7.9–9.6) | 8.5 (7.8–9.2) | 8.4 (7.8–9.1) | −22.9 |
| 55–64 years | 117.7 | 108.8 (102.6–115.5) | 96.9 (90.5–103.7) | 87.5 (80.8–94.7) | 83.0 (75.0–92.1) | 83.0 (73.9–93.7) | −30.3 |
| 65–74 years | 292.5 | 265.9 (254.7–277.6) | 248.8 (234.6–263.8) | 234.1 (218.2–251.1) | 215.2 (199.8–231.9) | 196.0 (180.4–213.1) | −31.3 |
| 75+ years | 646.7 | 629.0 (606.6–652.2) | 603.0 (577.4–629.7) | 576.2 (548.8–605.1) | 553.6 (522.5–586.6) | 524.5 (492.6–558.6) | −19.5 |
| Number of deaths from all smoking-related cancers | |||||||
| Total | 138 707 | 146 716 (140 952–152 815) | 157 046 (149 822–164 760) | 167 784 (158 964–177 296) | 176 497 (166 011–187 918) | 182 819 (170 702–196 155) | 31.8 |
| Men | 77 839 | 81 572 (78 611–84 700) | 86 808 (83 161–90 695) | 92 232 (87 756–97 066) | 96 639 (91 212–102 569) | 100 153 (93 748–107 239) | 28.7 |
| <55 years | 5730 | 5557 (5107–6082) | 5617 (5079–6259) | 5902 (5319–6611) | 6424 (5925–6999) | 6799 (6294–7375) | 18.7 |
| 55–64 years | 13 008 | 12 315 (11 779–12 878) | 11 790 (11 093–12 531) | 11 433 (10 542–12 420) | 11 346 (10 134–12 783) | 11 971 (10 689–13 514) | −8.0 |
| 65–74 years | 22 370 | 23 639 (22 932–24 369) | 24 268 (23 391–25 181) | 24 415 (23 290–25 602) | 23 842 (22 389–25 400) | 23 383 (21 521–25 451) | 4.5 |
| 75+ years | 36 732 | 40 061 (38 793–41 371) | 45 133 (43 598–46 724) | 50 482 (48 605–52 433) | 55 027 (52 764–57 387) | 58 000 (55 244–60 899) | 57.9 |
| Women | 60 868 | 65 144 (62 341–68 115) | 70 238 (66 661–74 065) | 75 552 (71 208–80 230) | 79 858 (74 799–85 349) | 82 666 (76 954–88 916) | 35.8 |
| <55 years | 4934 | 4471 (4146–4846) | 4419 (4060–4844) | 4685 (4270–5180) | 4990 (4593–5456) | 5216 (4840–5656) | 5.7 |
| 55–64 years | 8711 | 8511 (8028–9028) | 7921 (7402–8479) | 7424 (6852–8049) | 7230 (6548–8008) | 7813 (6989–8768) | –10.3 |
| 65–74 years | 15 358 | 16 484 (15 778–17 226) | 17 059 (16 091–18 091) | 17 134 (15 988–18 369) | 16 427 (15 240–17 709) | 15 549 (14 288–16 933) | 1.2 |
| 75+ years | 31 865 | 35 678 (34 389–37 015) | 40 839 (39 108–42 651) | 46 309 (44 098–48 632) | 51 211 (48 418–54 176) | 54 088 (50 837–57 559) | 69.7 |
*Overall percentage change in the age standardised rates and numbers of deaths projected for 2040–2044 compared with the age standardised rates and numbers of deaths in 2015–2019.
†Age-standardised to 2001 Australian population.