Table 2

Observed and projected numbers of cancer deaths directly attributable to smoking and smoking attributable fraction by cancer type for people aged 35 years and above in 2015–2044 in Australia, ranked by the total number of cancer deaths directly attributable to smoking in 2015–2019

Number of cancer deaths directly attributable to smokingSmoking attributable fraction (%)
2015–20192020–20242030–20342040–2044% change*Total in 2020–20442015–20192020–20242030–20342040–20442020–2044
Total 50 46750 50051 82849 726−1.5254 58339.536.832.528.632.3
Men34 80934 73235 33633 919−2.6173 94345.342.237.333.137.2
 Lung21 09220 58620 27618 760−11.199 69884.082.579.576.279.4
 Oesophagus326134353812402823.518 85166.964.560.155.659.7
 Lip, oral cavity and pharynx218023112545268723.312 60866.864.459.855.259.4
 Colon and rectum125111801101992−20.754608.
 Kidney and ureter993990101910283.5506831.929.725.922.425.7
 Myeloid leukaemia6506947386560.9352917.616.013.511.413.4
Women 15 65815 76816 49215 8071.080 64030.728.725.422.125.2
 Lung10 90311 20011 79811 2293.057 47962.658.652.847.352.6
 Colon and rectum900795736680−24.436817.
 Lip, oral cavity and pharynx4834785055075.0249437.234.129.625.729.4
 Myeloid leukaemia237218218195−17.710629.
 Kidney and ureter49433733−32.71882.
  • *Overall percentage change in the numbers of deaths projected for 2040–2044 compared with the numbers of deaths in 2015–2019.

  • †The numbers of deaths directly attributable to smoking were not estimated for cancers of ovary, uterus, cervix, gallbladder and biliary tract. Only certain subtypes of ovarian cancer are associated with smoking, and the relative risks for cancers of uterus, gallbladder and biliary tract were not available. Individual projections for cervical cancer mortality were not available due to lack of data on the new protocol and screening technology introduced in 2017 and the human papilloma virus vaccination programme.