Observed and projected numbers of cancer deaths directly attributable to smoking and smoking attributable fraction by cancer type for people aged 35 years and above in 2015–2044 in Australia, ranked by the total number of cancer deaths directly attributable to smoking in 2015–2019
| Number of cancer deaths directly attributable to smoking | Smoking attributable fraction (%) | ||||||||||
| 2015–2019 | 2020–2024 | 2030–2034 | 2040–2044 | % change* | Total in 2020–2044 | 2015–2019 | 2020–2024 | 2030–2034 | 2040–2044 | 2020–2044 | |
| Total† | 50 467 | 50 500 | 51 828 | 49 726 | −1.5 | 254 583 | 39.5 | 36.8 | 32.5 | 28.6 | 32.3 |
| Men | 34 809 | 34 732 | 35 336 | 33 919 | −2.6 | 173 943 | 45.3 | 42.2 | 37.3 | 33.1 | 37.2 |
| Lung | 21 092 | 20 586 | 20 276 | 18 760 | −11.1 | 99 698 | 84.0 | 82.5 | 79.5 | 76.2 | 79.4 |
| Oesophagus | 3261 | 3435 | 3812 | 4028 | 23.5 | 18 851 | 66.9 | 64.5 | 60.1 | 55.6 | 59.7 |
| Lip, oral cavity and pharynx | 2180 | 2311 | 2545 | 2687 | 23.3 | 12 608 | 66.8 | 64.4 | 59.8 | 55.2 | 59.4 |
| Bladder | 1439 | 1369 | 1406 | 1458 | 1.3 | 7043 | 38.5 | 36.5 | 32.3 | 28.3 | 32.0 |
| Colon and rectum | 1251 | 1180 | 1101 | 992 | −20.7 | 5460 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 6.7 |
| Pancreas | 1228 | 1277 | 1326 | 1275 | 3.8 | 6502 | 15.7 | 14.2 | 11.8 | 9.9 | 11.7 |
| Liver | 1219 | 1450 | 1736 | 1714 | 40.6 | 8290 | 18.6 | 17.1 | 14.5 | 12.4 | 14.3 |
| Kidney and ureter | 993 | 990 | 1019 | 1028 | 3.5 | 5068 | 31.9 | 29.7 | 25.9 | 22.4 | 25.7 |
| Stomach | 802 | 786 | 782 | 762 | −5.0 | 3887 | 22.3 | 20.5 | 17.6 | 15.0 | 17.5 |
| Larynx | 696 | 654 | 596 | 559 | −19.7 | 3005 | 77.8 | 75.8 | 72.2 | 68.6 | 72.3 |
| Myeloid leukaemia | 650 | 694 | 738 | 656 | 0.9 | 3529 | 17.6 | 16.0 | 13.5 | 11.4 | 13.4 |
| Women | 15 658 | 15 768 | 16 492 | 15 807 | 1.0 | 80 640 | 30.7 | 28.7 | 25.4 | 22.1 | 25.2 |
| Lung | 10 903 | 11 200 | 11 798 | 11 229 | 3.0 | 57 479 | 62.6 | 58.6 | 52.8 | 47.3 | 52.6 |
| Pancreas | 1284 | 1311 | 1414 | 1394 | 8.6 | 6914 | 17.9 | 15.8 | 13.4 | 11.4 | 13.3 |
| Colon and rectum | 900 | 795 | 736 | 680 | −24.4 | 3681 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 5.6 |
| Oesophagus | 798 | 747 | 756 | 752 | −5.8 | 3762 | 45.1 | 41.3 | 36.5 | 32.0 | 36.3 |
| Lip, oral cavity and pharynx | 483 | 478 | 505 | 507 | 5.0 | 2494 | 37.2 | 34.1 | 29.6 | 25.7 | 29.4 |
| Liver | 402 | 453 | 537 | 546 | 35.8 | 2591 | 12.2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 8.9 |
| Bladder | 325 | 272 | 245 | 225 | −30.8 | 1232 | 21.4 | 19.0 | 16.6 | 14.6 | 16.6 |
| Myeloid leukaemia | 237 | 218 | 218 | 195 | −17.7 | 1062 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 7.1 |
| Stomach | 198 | 182 | 185 | 191 | −3.5 | 930 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 7.1 |
| Larynx | 79 | 70 | 61 | 55 | −30.4 | 307 | 63.7 | 60.3 | 56.0 | 51.4 | 55.9 |
| Kidney and ureter | 49 | 43 | 37 | 33 | −32.7 | 188 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.1 |
*Overall percentage change in the numbers of deaths projected for 2040–2044 compared with the numbers of deaths in 2015–2019.
†The numbers of deaths directly attributable to smoking were not estimated for cancers of ovary, uterus, cervix, gallbladder and biliary tract. Only certain subtypes of ovarian cancer are associated with smoking, and the relative risks for cancers of uterus, gallbladder and biliary tract were not available. Individual projections for cervical cancer mortality were not available due to lack of data on the new protocol and screening technology introduced in 2017 and the human papilloma virus vaccination programme.