Table 1

Validation of VACO Index 30-day COVID-19 mortality estimates in subgroups of VA, YNHH and Medicare cohorts

All adultsAge 65+
VAYNHHVAMedicare
n13 32313076035427 224
30-day deaths, n (%)1136 (8.5)229 (17.5)991 (16.4)68 493 (16.0)
AUC
(95% CI) 		AUC
(95% CI) 		AUC
(95% CI) 		AUC
(95% CI)
Overall0.82
(0.81 to 0.83)		0.80
(0.77 to 0.83)		0.69
(0.67 to 0.70)		0.67
(0.67 to 0.68)
Subgroups
Testing date
 Early, 2 March 2020 to 15 April 20200.79
(0.77 to 70.81)		0.82
(0.78 to 0.86)		0.65
(0.62 to 0.68)		0.67
(0.67 to 0.68)
 Later, 16 April 2020 to 19 July 20200.84
(0.82 to 0.85)		0.78
(0.74 to 0.82)		0.70
(0.68 to 0.73)		0.68
(0.68 to 0.68)
Sex
 Male0.81
(0.80 to 0.82)		0.79
(0.75 to 0.83)		0.68
(0.66 to 0.70)		0.67
(0.67 to 0.67)
 Female0.88
(0.81 to 0.95)		0.81
(0.77 to 0.85)		0.78
(0.67 to 0.90)		0.67
(0.67 to 0.67)
Race/ethnicity
 Non-Hispanic White0.82
(0.81 to 0.84)		0.72
(0.67 to 0.77)		0.71
(0.68 to 0.73)		0.69
(0.68 to 0.69)
 Non-Hispanic Black0.80
(0.78 to 0.81)		0.81
(0.75 to 0.86)		0.65
(0.62 to 0.68)		0.64
(0.63 to 0.65)
 Hispanic0.85
(0.82 to 0.88)		0.87
(0.82 to 0.95)		0.67
(0.60 to 0.73)		0.65
(0.64 to 0.66)
 Asian***0.66
(0.64 to 0.67)
 North American Native***0.63
(0.61 to 0.66)
 Other0.87
(0.83 to 0.91)		0.94
(0.87 to 1.00)		0.74
(0.67 to 0.80)		0.67
(0.65 to 0.68)
Census region
 Northeast0.77
(0.75 to 0.79)		†0.67
(0.63 to 0.70)		0.68
(0.68 to 0.68)
 South0.084
(0.83 to 0.86)		†0.69
(0.66 to 0.72)		0.67
(0.67 to 0.67)
 Midwest0.77
(0.73 to 0.80)		†0.65
(0.61 to 0.70)		0.67
(0.66 to 0.67)
 West0.82
(0.79 to 0.85)		†0.69
(0.63 to 0.74)		0.68
(0.67 to 0.69)

  • *Asian and North American Native subgroups had small sample sizes, and thus were collapsed into the Other subgroup.

  • †Virtually all YNHH patients were from the Northeast census region.

  • AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; VA, Veterans Health Administration; VACO, Veterans Health Administration COVID-19; YNHH, Yale New Haven Hospital.