Model | Cohort | |||||
VA | YNHH | Medicare | ||||
Development | Validation | Early and late* | Early | Late | ||
AUC (95% CI) | AUC (95% CI) | AUC (95% CI) | AUC (95% CI) | AUC (95% CI) | ||
1 | VACO Index fixed | 0.79 (0.77 to 0.81) | 0.84 (0.82 to 0.85) | 0.80 (0.77 to 0.83) | 0.67 (0.67 to 0.68) | 0.68 (0.68 to 0.68) |
2 | VACO Index fixed+race | 0.79 (0.77 to 0.81) | 0.84 (0.82 to 0.85) | 0.80 (0.77 to 0.83) | 0.67 (0.67 to 0.68) | 0.67 (0.67 to 0.68) |
3 | VACO Index fixed+race+BMI | 0.79 (0.77 to 0.81) | 0.84 (0.82 to 0.85) | 0.80 (0.77 to 0.83) | † | † |
4 | Refit: VACO Index variables | 0.79 (0.77 to 0.81) | 0.84 (0.83 to 0.85) | 0.81 (0.78 to 0.84) | 0.68 (0.67 to 0.68) | 0.69 (0.68 to 0.69) |
5 | Refit: VACO Index variables+race | 0.79 (0.77 to 0.81) | 0.84 (0.83 to 0.85) | 0.81 (0.79 to 0.84) | 0.68 (0.68 to 0.68) | 0.68 (0.68 to 0.69) |
6 | Refit: VACO Index variables+race+BMI | 0.79 (0.77 to 0.81) | 0.84 (0.83 to 0.85) | 0.81 (0.78 to 0.84) | † | † |
7 | Refit: Medicare age, sex, CCI 0–10, race | 0.79 (0.77 to 0.81) | 0.84 (0.83 to 0.85) | 0.81 (0.77 to 0.84) | 0.68 (0.68 to 0.68) | 0.68 (0.68 to 0.69) |
8 | Refit: Medicare age, sex, CCI 0–10, race, BMI | 0.79 (0.77 to 0.81) | 0.84 (0.83 to 0.85) | 0.81 (0.79 to 0.84) | † | † |
9 | Refit: Medicare age, sex, 17 CCI variables, race | 0.79 (0.77 to 0.81) | 0.84 (0.83 to 0.86) | 0.82 (0.79 to 0.84) | 0.68 (0.67 to 0.68) | 0.69 (0.68 to 0.69) |
10 | Refit: Medicare age, sex, 17 CCI variables, race, BMI | 0.80 (0.78 to 0.82) | 0.85 (0.83 to 0.86) | 0.82 (0.79 to 0.84) | † | † |
11 | Refit: Medicare age, sex, 17 CCI variables, CCI 0–10, race | 0.80 (0.79 to 0.82) | 0.84 (0.83 to 0.86) | 0.82 (0.80 to 0.85) | 0.68 (0.67 to 0.68) | 0.69 (0.68 to 0.69) |
12 | Refit: Medicare age, sex, 17 CCI variables, CCI 0–10, race, BMI | 0.80 (0.78 to 0.82) | 0.85 (0.83 to 0.86) | 0.82 (0.80 to 0.85) | † | † |
*YNHH early and late cohorts combined due to small sample size.
†BMI not in Medicare data set, thus no Medicare multivariable models containing BMI possible.
AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; BMI, body mass index; CCI, Charlson Comorbidity Index; VA, Veterans Health Administration; VACO, Veterans Health Administration COVID-19; YNHH, Yale New Haven Hospital.