Table 2

Impact of adding race and BMI to VACO Index 30-day COVID-19 mortality estimates in VA, YNHH and Medicare cohorts

ModelCohort
VAYNHHMedicare
DevelopmentValidationEarly and late*EarlyLate
AUC
(95% CI)		AUC
(95% CI)		AUC
(95% CI)		AUC
(95% CI)		AUC
(95% CI)
1VACO Index fixed0.79
(0.77 to 0.81)		0.84
(0.82 to 0.85)		0.80
(0.77 to 0.83)		0.67
(0.67 to 0.68)		0.68
(0.68 to 0.68)
2VACO Index fixed+race0.79
(0.77 to 0.81)		0.84
(0.82 to 0.85)		0.80
(0.77 to 0.83)		0.67
(0.67 to 0.68)		0.67
(0.67 to 0.68)
3VACO Index fixed+race+BMI0.79
(0.77 to 0.81)		0.84
(0.82 to 0.85)		0.80
(0.77 to 0.83)		††
4Refit: VACO Index variables0.79
(0.77 to 0.81)		0.84
(0.83 to 0.85)		0.81
(0.78 to 0.84)		0.68
(0.67 to 0.68)		0.69
(0.68 to 0.69)
5Refit: VACO Index variables+race0.79
(0.77 to 0.81)		0.84
(0.83 to 0.85)		0.81
(0.79 to 0.84)		0.68
(0.68 to 0.68)		0.68
(0.68 to 0.69)
6Refit: VACO Index variables+race+BMI0.79
(0.77 to 0.81)		0.84
(0.83 to 0.85)		0.81
(0.78 to 0.84)		††
7Refit: Medicare age, sex, CCI 0–10, race0.79
(0.77 to 0.81)		0.84
(0.83 to 0.85)		0.81
(0.77 to 0.84)		0.68
(0.68 to 0.68)		0.68
(0.68 to 0.69)
8Refit: Medicare age, sex, CCI 0–10, race, BMI0.79
(0.77 to 0.81)		0.84
(0.83 to 0.85)		0.81
(0.79 to 0.84)		††
9Refit: Medicare age, sex, 17 CCI variables, race0.79
(0.77 to 0.81)		0.84
(0.83 to 0.86)		0.82
(0.79 to 0.84)		0.68
(0.67 to 0.68)		0.69
(0.68 to 0.69)
10Refit: Medicare age, sex, 17 CCI variables, race, BMI0.80
(0.78 to 0.82)		0.85
(0.83 to 0.86)		0.82
(0.79 to 0.84)		††
11Refit: Medicare age, sex, 17 CCI variables, CCI 0–10, race0.80
(0.79 to 0.82)		0.84
(0.83 to 0.86)		0.82
(0.80 to 0.85)		0.68
(0.67 to 0.68)		0.69
(0.68 to 0.69)
12Refit: Medicare age, sex, 17 CCI variables, CCI 0–10, race, BMI0.80
(0.78 to 0.82)		0.85
(0.83 to 0.86)		0.82
(0.80 to 0.85)		††

  • *YNHH early and late cohorts combined due to small sample size.

  • †BMI not in Medicare data set, thus no Medicare multivariable models containing BMI possible.

  • AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; BMI, body mass index; CCI, Charlson Comorbidity Index; VA, Veterans Health Administration; VACO, Veterans Health Administration COVID-19; YNHH, Yale New Haven Hospital.