Association between local authority spending and obesity prevalence at reception (Poisson model)
| Relative change in obesity prevalence (95% CI) | P value | |
| Sure Start and early years spending (10% decrease in spend, 2018/2019 prices) | 0.34% (0.15% to 0.53%) | 0.001 |
| Spend (10% decrease) x prior obesity trend | 0.002 | |
| Average annual change in prevalence 2007/2008–2010/2011* | ||
| 0.5% decrease | 0.57% (0.34% to 0.80%) | |
| No change | 0.29% (0.10% to 0.48%) | |
| 0.5% increase | 0.01% (−0.29% to 0.30%) | |
| Spend x deprivation | 0.372 | |
| Quintile of Index of Multiple Deprivation | ||
| Q1 (least deprived) | 0.49% (0.26% to 0.73%) | |
| Q2 | 0.22% (-0.08% to 0.52%) | |
| Q3 | 0.18% (−0.23% to 0.58%) | |
| Q4 | 0.36% (0.06% to 0.66%) | |
| Q5 (most deprived) | 0.59% (0.05% to 1.13%) | |
| Youth services spending—negative control
(10% decrease in spend, 2018/2019 prices) | −0.03% (−0.22 to 0.16) | 0.761 |
All models adjusted for the proportion of children in low-income families, gross disposable household income and spending on all other child social care services. 95% CIs are based on robust standard errors.
*Table shows effect estimates for representative values of prior trend in obesity prevalence.