Excess all-cause deaths, minus those with documented COVID-19 infection, from negative binomial regression model, 22/2/2020 to 8/5/2020
| Week ending | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/3* | 20/3 | 27/3 | 3/4 | 10/4 | 17/4 | 24/4 | 1/5 | 8/5 | Total | |
| England | −310 (−787,147) | −377 (−79,323) | 375 (32,706) | 2286 (1751,2795) | 1327 (539,2063) | 2896 (2008,3716) | 3148 (2683,3594) | 1506 (1029,1962) | −1192 (−1754,−661) | 9948 (9376,10520) |
| Regions† | ||||||||||
| North East | 15 (−7,35) | −33 (−50,−14) | −2 (−12,37) | 85 (193,244) | −2 (244,326) | 129 (560,645) | 123 (510,572) | 49 (337,392) | −34 (215,259) | 320 (290,351) |
| North West | −26 (−92,40) | −14 (−53,46) | 100 (115,203) | 291 (636,779) | 201 (1011,1202) | 416 (1663,1862) | 489 (1638,1752) | 188 (1047,1147) | −124 (403,538) | 1487 (1439,1535) |
| Yorkshire & Humber | −58 (−94,−23) | −76 (−116,−28) | −18 (−47,34) | 238 (345,475) | 61 (360,506) | 244 (860,1003) | 298 (1011,1093) | 180 (777,874) | −82 (298,400) | 797 (760,834) |
| East Midlands | −65 (−109,−22) | −4 (−49,45) | 12 (6,66) | 147 (296,366) | 101 (459,586) | 149 (622,785) | 236 (768,827) | 91 (477,577) | −113 (162,276) | 568 (532,603) |
| West Midlands | 0 (−61,61) | −11 (−60,62) | −71 (−39,31) | 305 (639,767) | 238 (944,1138) | 411 (1308,1504) | 522 (1336,1464) | 236 (826,945) | −114 (272,384) | 1531 (1483,1579) |
| East | −17 (−66,31) | −140 (−201,−77) | 57 (24,113) | 265 (492,602) | 209 (680,860) | 442 (1171,1373) | 327 (1080,1200) | 228 (809,907) | −136 (165,305) | 1286 (1240,1332) |
| London | −74 (−109,−40) | −29 (−31,59) | 116 (297,406) | 357 (1474,1578) | 326 (1767,1894) | 497 (2240,2386) | 408 (1774,1853) | 241 (980,1069) | −119 (275,362) | 1814 (1780,1849) |
| South East | 15 (−66,97) | −47 (−87,24) | 188 (195,316) | 267 (595,758) | 187 (788,1036) | 342 (1298,1590) | 464 (1601,1786) | 292 (1164,1347) | −208 (230,449) | 1570 (1502,1637) |
| South West | −62 (−14,010) | −36 (−85,13) | −31 (−49,25) | 244 (318,474) | 95 (292,486) | 199 (584,806) | 260 (732,848) | 18 (363,477) | −123 (78,224) | 609 (558,660) |
| Wales | −43 (−100,9) | 20 (−12,55) | 41 (32,90) | 101 (196,272) | −76 (179,274) | 89 (447,545) | 24 (408,465) | −18 (234,290) | −144 (32,100) | −18 (−45,9) |
| Age groups† | ||||||||||
| All <1 | 6 (2,10) | −5 (−9,−2) | 3 (−4,8) | 5 (1,8) | −10 (−16,−5) | 1 (−4,5) | 8 (2,13) | 2 (0,5) | −17 (−24,−11) | 7 (4,10) |
| All 01–14 | 3 (−1,6) | −7 (−11,−4) | −5 (−8,−3) | 4 (2,5) | −6 (−8,−4) | −6 (−9,−5) | −5 (−7,−3) | −7 (−9,−5) | 3 (1,4) | −27 (−28,−25) |
| All 15–44 | 21 (7,35) | −10 (−23,3) | 14 (−2,29) | −35 (−52,−19) | −33 (−51,−17) | −30 (−51,−12) | 5 (−13,22) | −5 (−27,15) | −78 (−106,−54) | −138 (−151,−125) |
| All 45–64 | 45 (19,71) | 6 (−27,39) | 63 (16,108) | 210 (148,269) | 70 (−31,39) | 46 (−46,131) | 182 (124,237) | 130 (60,196) | −97 (−180,−21) | 969 (926,1011) |
| All 65–74 | −69 (−134,−6) | −22 (−76,30) | 10 (−51,69) | 274 (168,373) | −128 (−242,−20) | 84 (−55,212) | 169 (102,234) | 34 (−43,108) | −156 (−252,−65) | 1249 (1191,1306) |
| All 75–84 | −35 (−16,590) | −13 (−132,101) | 184 (84,280) | 702 (561,836) | 109 (−113,316) | 581 (350,796) | 685 (570,796) | 84 (−43,206) | −493 (−660,−336) | 2207 (2097,2317) |
| All 85+ | −303 (−600,−23) | −346 (−596,−109) | 32 (−154,211) | 788 (523,1038) | 636 (234,1005) | 1471 (1036,1866) | 1323 (1082,1552) | 574 (349,787) | −404 (−629,−192) | 5124 (4926,5321) |
| Males <1 | −4 (−7,−2) | −3 (−7,1) | 1 (−2,4) | 0 (−4,2) | 1 (−4,4) | −5 (−8,−1) | 7 (3,11) | 4 (2,6) | −10 (−14,−7) | −1 (−3,1) |
| Males 01–14 | −1 (−3,1) | −2 (−5,0) | −5 (−7,−3) | −3 (−5,−1) | −4 (−6,−2) | −4 (−6,−3) | 0 (−2,1) | −6 (−7,−4) | 5 (3,6) | −21 (−22,−19) |
| Males 15–44 | 13 (0,25) | −3 (−14,7) | 12 (−1,24) | −16 (−27,−5) | −32 (−46,−19) | −24 (−40,−9) | −5 (−20,9) | −17 (−36,0) | −46 (−65,−29) | −113 (−123,−103) |
| Males 45–64 | 44 (21,66) | 14 (−8,35) | 36 (7,63) | 158 (123,191) | 42 (−1,83) | −3 (−59,49) | 117 (78,154) | 83 (40,124) | −47 (−100,2) | 614 (587,640) |
| Males 65–74 | −17 (−52,18) | −4 (−42,33) | 82 (55,107) | 212 (154,266) | −68 (−138,−1) | 38 (−40,111) | 156 (106,203) | 13 (−31,55) | −115 (−174,−59) | 863 (829,897) |
| Males 75–84 | −4 (−72,62) | 11 (−47,67) | 186 (131,239) | 421 (343,496) | 69 (−56,186) | 267 (153,373) | 364 (295,431) | 38 (−32,105) | −285 (−371,−203) | 1214 (1155,1272) |
| Males 85+ | −51 (−15,649) | −77 (−162,3) | 102 (24,177) | 431 (334,523) | 288 (124,439) | 433 (265,587) | 427 (350,501) | 102 (34,167) | −284 (−380,−193) | 1910 (1837,1983) |
| Females <1 | 10 (7,13) | −3 (−6,0) | 1 (−3,5) | 5 (2,8) | −11 (−14,−8) | 5 (3,7) | 1 (−1,3) | −2 (−5,0) | −7 (−11,−3) | 8 (6,10) |
| Females 01–14 | 4 (1,6) | −5 (−7,−3) | 0 (−2,1) | 6 (5,8) | −2 (−3,−1) | −2 (−4,0) | −5 (−5,−4) | −1 (−3,0) | −2 (−4,−1) | −6 (−7,−5) |
| Females 15–44 | 9 (4,13) | −7 (−13,−2) | 1 (−6,7) | −17 (−26,−9) | −1 (−8,6) | −6 (−14,2) | 10 (5,15) | 12 (5,20) | −33 (−45,−22) | −24 (−29,−19) |
| Females 45–64 | 1 (−8,11) | −8 (−22,6) | 27 (1,52) | 55 (25,83) | 29 (−5,62) | 57 (20,92) | 76 (54,96) | 53 (23,80) | −51 (−82,−21) | 352 (334,370) |
| Females 65–74 | −53 (−87,−20) | −20 (−39,−1) | −69 (−109,−32) | 70 (21 116) | −43 (−89,0) | 56 (−81,15) | 30 (7,52) | 36 (1,70) | −40 (−80,−3) | 387 (361,413) |
| Females 75–84 | −31 (−95,31) | −24 (−90,39) | −1 (−51,47) | 293 (228,355) | 71 (−29,164) | 350 (231,459) | 356 (304,405) | 84 (20,145) | −207 (−290,−129) | 1009 (955,1063) |
| Females 85+ | −254 (−452,−69) | −271 (−438,−113) | −71 (−18,840) | 370 (197,531) | 369 (128,590) | 1077 (810,1320) | 957 (792,1112) | 541 (384,688) | −119 (−250,6) | 3250 (3124,3377) |
*Week first COVID-19 related deaths were officially reported.
†Sums across age groups and regions do not necessarily correspond to the England-Wales aggregate due to missing postcodes or ages for some deaths and different models used across population strata.