Table 3

Excess all-cause deaths, minus those with documented COVID-19 infection, from negative binomial regression model, 22/2/2020 to 8/5/2020

Week ending
13/3*20/327/33/410/417/424/41/58/5Total
England−310
(−787,147)
−377
(−79,323)
375
(32,706)
2286
(1751,2795)
1327
(539,2063)
2896
(2008,3716)
3148
(2683,3594)
1506
(1029,1962)
−1192
(−1754,−661)
9948
(9376,10520)
Regions†
North East15
(−7,35)
−33
(−50,−14)
−2
(−12,37)
85
(193,244)
−2
(244,326)
129
(560,645)
123
(510,572)
49
(337,392)
−34
(215,259)
320
(290,351)
North West−26
(−92,40)
−14
(−53,46)
100
(115,203)
291
(636,779)
201
(1011,1202)
416
(1663,1862)
489
(1638,1752)
188
(1047,1147)
−124
(403,538)
1487
(1439,1535)
Yorkshire & Humber−58
(−94,−23)
−76
(−116,−28)
−18
(−47,34)
238
(345,475)
61
(360,506)
244
(860,1003)
298
(1011,1093)
180
(777,874)
−82
(298,400)
797
(760,834)
East Midlands−65
(−109,−22)
−4
(−49,45)
12
(6,66)
147
(296,366)
101
(459,586)
149
(622,785)
236
(768,827)
91
(477,577)
−113
(162,276)
568
(532,603)
West Midlands0
(−61,61)
−11
(−60,62)
−71
(−39,31)
305
(639,767)
238
(944,1138)
411
(1308,1504)
522
(1336,1464)
236
(826,945)
−114
(272,384)
1531
(1483,1579)
East−17
(−66,31)
−140
(−201,−77)
57
(24,113)
265
(492,602)
209
(680,860)
442
(1171,1373)
327
(1080,1200)
228
(809,907)
−136
(165,305)
1286
(1240,1332)
London−74
(−109,−40)
−29
(−31,59)
116
(297,406)
357
(1474,1578)
326
(1767,1894)
497
(2240,2386)
408
(1774,1853)
241
(980,1069)
−119
(275,362)
1814
(1780,1849)
South East15
(−66,97)
−47
(−87,24)
188
(195,316)
267
(595,758)
187
(788,1036)
342
(1298,1590)
464
(1601,1786)
292
(1164,1347)
−208
(230,449)
1570
(1502,1637)
South West−62
(−14,010)
−36
(−85,13)
−31
(−49,25)
244
(318,474)
95
(292,486)
199
(584,806)
260
(732,848)
18
(363,477)
−123
(78,224)
609
(558,660)
Wales−43
(−100,9)
20
(−12,55)
41
(32,90)
101
(196,272)
−76
(179,274)
89
(447,545)
24
(408,465)
−18
(234,290)
−144
(32,100)
−18
(−45,9)
Age groups†
All <16
(2,10)
−5
(−9,−2)
3
(−4,8)
5
(1,8)
−10
(−16,−5)
1
(−4,5)
8
(2,13)
2
(0,5)
−17
(−24,−11)
7
(4,10)
All 01–143
(−1,6)
−7
(−11,−4)
−5
(−8,−3)
4
(2,5)
−6
(−8,−4)
−6
(−9,−5)
−5
(−7,−3)
−7
(−9,−5)
3
(1,4)
−27
(−28,−25)
All 15–4421
(7,35)
−10
(−23,3)
14
(−2,29)
−35
(−52,−19)
−33
(−51,−17)
−30
(−51,−12)
5
(−13,22)
−5
(−27,15)
−78
(−106,−54)
−138
(−151,−125)
All 45–6445
(19,71)
6
(−27,39)
63
(16,108)
210
(148,269)
70
(−31,39)
46
(−46,131)
182
(124,237)
130
(60,196)
−97
(−180,−21)
969
(926,1011)
All 65–74−69
(−134,−6)
−22
(−76,30)
10
(−51,69)
274
(168,373)
−128
(−242,−20)
84
(−55,212)
169
(102,234)
34
(−43,108)
−156
(−252,−65)
1249
(1191,1306)
All 75–84−35
(−16,590)
−13
(−132,101)
184
(84,280)
702
(561,836)
109
(−113,316)
581
(350,796)
685
(570,796)
84
(−43,206)
−493
(−660,−336)
2207
(2097,2317)
All 85+−303
(−600,−23)
−346
(−596,−109)
32
(−154,211)
788
(523,1038)
636
(234,1005)
1471
(1036,1866)
1323
(1082,1552)
574
(349,787)
−404
(−629,−192)
5124
(4926,5321)
Males <1−4
(−7,−2)
−3
(−7,1)
1
(−2,4)
0
(−4,2)
1
(−4,4)
−5
(−8,−1)
7
(3,11)
4
(2,6)
−10
(−14,−7)
−1
(−3,1)
Males 01–14−1
(−3,1)
−2
(−5,0)
−5
(−7,−3)
−3
(−5,−1)
−4
(−6,−2)
−4
(−6,−3)
0
(−2,1)
−6
(−7,−4)
5
(3,6)
−21
(−22,−19)
Males 15–4413
(0,25)
−3
(−14,7)
12
(−1,24)
−16
(−27,−5)
−32
(−46,−19)
−24
(−40,−9)
−5
(−20,9)
−17
(−36,0)
−46
(−65,−29)
−113
(−123,−103)
Males 45–6444
(21,66)
14
(−8,35)
36
(7,63)
158
(123,191)
42
(−1,83)
−3
(−59,49)
117
(78,154)
83
(40,124)
−47
(−100,2)
614
(587,640)
Males 65–74−17
(−52,18)
−4
(−42,33)
82
(55,107)
212
(154,266)
−68
(−138,−1)
38
(−40,111)
156
(106,203)
13
(−31,55)
−115
(−174,−59)
863
(829,897)
Males 75–84−4
(−72,62)
11
(−47,67)
186
(131,239)
421
(343,496)
69
(−56,186)
267
(153,373)
364
(295,431)
38
(−32,105)
−285
(−371,−203)
1214
(1155,1272)
Males 85+−51
(−15,649)
−77
(−162,3)
102
(24,177)
431
(334,523)
288
(124,439)
433
(265,587)
427
(350,501)
102
(34,167)
−284
(−380,−193)
1910
(1837,1983)
Females <110
(7,13)
−3
(−6,0)
1
(−3,5)
5
(2,8)
−11
(−14,−8)
5
(3,7)
1
(−1,3)
−2
(−5,0)
−7
(−11,−3)
8
(6,10)
Females 01–144
(1,6)
−5
(−7,−3)
0
(−2,1)
6
(5,8)
−2
(−3,−1)
−2
(−4,0)
−5
(−5,−4)
−1
(−3,0)
−2
(−4,−1)
−6
(−7,−5)
Females 15–449
(4,13)
−7
(−13,−2)
1
(−6,7)
−17
(−26,−9)
−1
(−8,6)
−6
(−14,2)
10
(5,15)
12
(5,20)
−33
(−45,−22)
−24
(−29,−19)
Females 45–641
(−8,11)
−8
(−22,6)
27
(1,52)
55
(25,83)
29
(−5,62)
57
(20,92)
76
(54,96)
53
(23,80)
−51
(−82,−21)
352
(334,370)
Females 65–74−53
(−87,−20)
−20
(−39,−1)
−69
(−109,−32)
70
(21 116)
−43
(−89,0)
56
(−81,15)
30
(7,52)
36
(1,70)
−40
(−80,−3)
387
(361,413)
Females 75–84−31
(−95,31)
−24
(−90,39)
−1
(−51,47)
293
(228,355)
71
(−29,164)
350
(231,459)
356
(304,405)
84
(20,145)
−207
(−290,−129)
1009
(955,1063)
Females 85+−254
(−452,−69)
−271
(−438,−113)
−71
(−18,840)
370
(197,531)
369
(128,590)
1077
(810,1320)
957
(792,1112)
541
(384,688)
−119
(−250,6)
3250
(3124,3377)
  • *Week first COVID-19 related deaths were officially reported.

  • †Sums across age groups and regions do not necessarily correspond to the England-Wales aggregate due to missing postcodes or ages for some deaths and different models used across population strata.