Table 1

Estimates of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19 on different age groups by applying assumptions to the imperial model

Age group (years)UK age distribution*Infection Fatality RatioUKGBEngland & WalesScotlandNorthern Ireland
Estimated number of deaths in each age group if there were a total of 510 000 deaths in GB
0 to 46%0.002%44423931
5 to 96%0.003%78767062
10 to 146%0.006%12412011194
15 to 196%0.010%200194178166
20 to 246%0.017%3873763443211
25 to 297%0.028%7116916316019
30 to 347%0.048%1189115510599634
35 to 397%0.082%19751920176215756
40 to 446%0.139%30612972272824389
45 to 497%0.236%586056945208487166
50 to 547%0.400%10 31010 0189125893292
55 to 596%0.678%16 06615 61114 1651447455
60 to 646%1.150%23 31622 66320 5282135652
65 to 695%1.952%36 57435 61332 3783235961
70 to 745%3.311%59 40057 93052 98049501470
75 to 793%5.617%69 28167 44261 52059221839
80 to 843%9.528%87 98085 80378 42973742177
85 to 892%16.164%91 37089 17781 91372642192
90+1%35.716%115 091112 502104 24082622589
Total523 016510 000467 40942 59113 016
Estimated number of deaths in each age group if there were a total of 20 000 deaths in GB
0 to 46%0.002%22200
5 to 96%0.003%33300
10 to 146%0.006%55400
15 to 196%0.010%88710
20 to 246%0.017%15151310
25 to 297%0.028%28272521
30 to 347%0.048%47454241
35 to 397%0.082%77756962
40 to 446%0.139%120117107103
45 to 497%0.236%230223204197
50 to 547%0.400%4043933583511
55 to 596%0.678%6306125555718
60 to 646%1.150%9148898058426
65 to 695%1.952%14341397127012738
70 to 745%3.311%23292272207819458
75 to 793%5.617%27172645241323272
80 to 843%9.528%34503365307628985
85 to 892%16.164%35833497321228586
90+1%35.716%451344124088324102
Total20 51020 00018 3301670510
  • *ONS 2018 mid-population estimate. The population profiles for each nation/GB/UK were used to weight the estimates, but these are not shown because they are very similar to the estimates for the UK overall. GB, Great Britain; UK, United Kingdom.