Outcome | Trajectory group | N | No. of events | Person-years | Rate per 1000 person-years | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 |
HR (95% CI) | |||||||||
Deaths (all cause) | Low decreasing | 733 | 494 | 8402.2 | 58.8 | Referent | Referent | Referent | Referent |
Light stable | 1649 | 869 | 22 216.5 | 39.1 | 0.73(0.65to0.81) | 0.78(0.69to0.87) | 0.80(0.71to0.90) | 0.83(0.74to0.94) | |
Moderate increasing | 849 | 372 | 12 034.9 | 30.9 | 0.64(0.55to0.73) | 0.71(0.61to0.81) | 0.74(0.64to0.85) | 0.76(0.66to0.88) | |
p trend | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | |||||
CVD mortality* | Low decreasing | 733 | 198 | 8402.2 | 23.6 | Referent | Referent | Referent | Referent |
Light stable | 1649 | 297 | 22 216.5 | 13.4 | 0.64(0.53to0.77) | 0.67(0.56to0.81) | 0.69(0.57to0.84) | 0.76(0.62to0.91) | |
Moderate increasing | 849 | 115 | 12 034.9 | 9.6 | 0.53(0.42to0.67) | 0.58(0.45to0.74) | 0.61(0.48to0.78) | 0.64(0.50to0.82) | |
p trend | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | |||||
All CVD events (fatal +non-fatal)† | Low decreasing | 733 | 252 | 7901.3 | 31.9 | Referent | Referent | Referent | Referent |
Light stable | 1649 | 470 | 20 692.5 | 22.7 | 0.80(0.69to0.94) | 0.83(0.70to0.97) | 0.85 (0.72 to 1.00) | 0.89 (0.75 to 1.04) | |
Moderate increasing | 849 | 198 | 11 338.1 | 17.5 | 0.70(0.57to0.85) | 0.74(0.60to0.90) | 0.77(0.63 to 0.94) | 0.78(0.64to0.95) | |
p trend | <0.001 | 0.002 | 0.009 | 0.015 | |||||
CHD events (fatal+non-fatal)‡ | Low decreasing | 733 | 146 | 8190.7 | 17.8 | Referent | Referent | Referent | Referent |
Light stable | 1649 | 245 | 21 531.7 | 11.4 | 0.73(0.59to0.91) | 0.75(0.60to0.93) | 0.77(0.62to0.95) | 0.80(0.64to1.00) | |
Moderate increasing | 849 | 98 | 11 672.4 | 8.4 | 0.63(0.49to0.83) | 0.67(0.51to0.88) | 0.70(0.53to0.92) | 0.71(0.54to0.93) | |
p trend | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.009 | 0.012 | |||||
Stroke events (fatal+non-fatal)§ | Low decreasing | 733 | 76 | 8098.6 | 9.4 | Referent | Referent | Referent | Referent |
Light stable | 1649 | 186 | 21 308.6 | 8.7 | 0.99 (0.75 to 1.31) | 1.04 (0.79 to 1.38) | 1.08 (0.82 to 1.43) | 1.10 (0.83 to 1.46) | |
Moderate increasing | 849 | 84 | 11 687.7 | 7.2 | 0.87 (0.63 to 1.20) | 0.92 (0.66 to 1.28) | 0.96 (0.69 to 1.34) | 0.98 (0.70 to 1.37) | |
p trend | 0.368 | 0.573 | 0.773 | 0.851 |
Model 1, adjusted for age, occupational class, marital status, alcohol consumption, smoking status, region, previous diagnosis of MI, stroke or diabetes.
Model 2, Model 1+LDL, HDL, systolic blood pressure, insulin, waist circumference and FEV1.
Model 3, Model 2+IL-6 and vWf.
Model 4, Model 3+Hs TnT and NT-proBNP.
Boldface indicates statistical significance (p<0.05).
*Fatal CVD was defined as ICD-9 codes 390–459.
†All CVD events included all fatal CVD (ICD-9 codes 390–459) and non-fatal MI and stroke as described above.
‡Fatal myocardial infarction (MI) was defined as ICD-9 codes 410–414. Non-fatal MI was defined as heart attack or coronary thrombosis, in accordance with the WHO diagnostic criteria.
§Fatal stroke was defined as ICD-9 codes 430–438. Non-fatal stroke events included those that caused a neurological deficit for >24 hours.
CHD, coronary heart disease; CVD, stroke/MI; MI, myocardial infarction.