Table 3

IMPACTNCD estimates of additional cardiovascular disease (CVD) and gastric cancer cases linked to Responsibility Deal 2011–2025. Negative values in the lower bound of the interquartile ranges (IQR) are a consequence of stochastic noise in the model

DiseasePeriod of exposureAbsolute number of additional cases (IQR)Absolute number of additional deaths (IQR)Probability of superiority *
CVD
2011–20189900 (6700 to 13,000)710 (-510 to 2300)2.0%
2019–202526 000 (20 000 to 31,000)5500 (2800 to 8500)0.2%
2011–202535 000 (29 000 to 42,000)6400 (3200 to 9400)<0.1%
GCa
2011–20181500 (510 to 2300)610 (-310 to 1500)16.0%
2019–20253800 (2200 to 5300)1900 (790 to 3100)5.3%
2011–20255300 (3400 to 7200)2500 (920 to 3900)5.8%
  • Numbers are rounded to the second significant digit.

  • *Probability of superiority represents the probability that the Responsibility Deal scenario had fewer cases than the counterfactual scenario.

  • GCa, gastric cancer.