Table 4

IMPACTNCD estimates of additional cardiovascular disease (CVD) and gastric cancer cases linked to Responsibility Deal 2011–2025 by deprivation group. Negative values in the lower bound of the interquartile ranges (IQR) are a consequence of stochastic noise in the model

DiseaseQIMD (5=most deprived)Absolute number of additional cases (IQR)Rate per 100 000 person-years (IQR)Rate per 100 000 new cases
2011–2018 *
CVD11600 (-200 to 3600)3.0 (-0.38 to 6.7)1200 (-150 to 2700)
21900 (200 to 4100)3.6 (0.38 to 7.5)1300 (130 to 2700)
31900 (100 to 4100)3.6 (0.19 to 7.5)1300 (65 to 2800)
42000 (2800 to 4100)3.9 (0.52 to 7.7)1500 (200 to 2900)
52000 (200 to 4000)4.1 (0.4 to 7.8)1500 (150 to 2800)
GCa1200 (-310 to 820)0.37 (-0.75 to 1.5)910 (-4,400 to 5400)
2310 (-310 to 920)0.56 (-0.56 to 1.7)1000 (-4,000 to 6100)
3310 (-310 to 820)0.57 (-0.56 to 1.5)420 (-3,500 to 5900)
4410 (-200 to 940)0.76 (-0.39 to 1.8)1300 (-4,100 to 6800)
5310 (-200 to 920)0.59 (-0.39 to 1.7)1200 (-4,200 to 7100)
2019–2025 *
CVD14300 (1400 to 7100)9.1 (2.9 to 15)3600 (1100 to 6100)
25100 (2000 to 8300)11 (4.3 to 17)4100 (1600 to 6600)
35300 (1900 to 8400)11 (4.1 to 18)4200 (1500 to 6600)
45400 (2200 to 8700)11 (4.7 to 18)4500 (1800 to 7100)
55800 (2300 to 9100)12 (5.1 to 19)4500 (1900 to 7100)
GCa1710 (0 to 1300)1.5 (0 to 2.8)7100 (-1,600 to 17,000)
2820 (0 to 1500)1.7 (0 to 3.3)7800 (-930 to 20,000)
3820 (0 to 1500)1.7 (0.42 to 3.3)9000 (-1,200 to 20,000)
4820 (0 to 1500)1.7 (0 to 3.2)10 000 (-1,300 to 21,000)
5820 (0 to 1500)1.7 (0 to 3.2)9200 (-1,500 to 22,000)
  • Numbers are rounded to the second significant digit.

  • *Years refer to the years in which the relevant policies were in operation, although outcomes can be accumulated up to 2035.

  • GCa, gastric cancer; QIMD, Quantile group of Index of Multiple Deprivation.