Model 2* | ||||||
Outcomes to age 11 | Cognitive language disability | Physical overweight/obese | Behavioural socioemotional problems | |||
Predictors | Relative risk (95% CI) | SDS/Ranking† | Relative risk (95% CI) | SDS/Ranking† | Relative risk (95% CI) | SDS/Ranking† |
Mother ethnicity | 0.017/10 | 0.006/11 | 0.005/17 | |||
White | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
Mixed | 0.99 (0.50 to 1.95) | 0.77 (0.53 to 1.10) | 1.74 (0.96 to 3.15) | |||
Indian | 0.37 (0.19 to 0.71) | 1.25 (0.94 to 1.67) | 0.86 (0.44 to 1.67) | |||
Pakistani | 1.13 (0.70 to 1.85) | 1.32 (1.04 to 1.68) | 0.94 (0.54 to 1.63) | |||
Bangladeshi | 1.64 (0.96 to 2.82) | 1.12 (0.79 to 1.59) | 0.98 (0.48 to 1.98) | |||
Black | 0.73 (0.43 to 1.25) | 1.34 (1.13 to 1.58) | 1.23 (0.74 to 2.03) | |||
Other | 0.61 (0.25 to 1.47) | 0.81 (0.56 to 1.17) | 0.36 (0.12 to 1.04) | |||
Mother’s age at birth | 0.020/9 | 0.002/14 | 0.003/7 | |||
14–19 years old | 1.16 (0.77 to 1.74) | 0.87 (0.73 to 1.05) | 1.37 (0.98 to 1.91) | |||
20–24 years old | 1.27 (0.92 to 1.73) | 0.93 (0.82 to 1.05) | 1.48 (1.11 to 1.97) | |||
25–29 years old | 1.02 (0.75 to 1.40) | 0.90 (0.81 to 1.01) | 1.26 (0.99 to 1.62) | |||
30–34 years old | 1.05 (0.78 to 1.43) | 0.97 (0.87 to 1.07) | 1.01 (0.79 to 1.30) | |||
≥35 years old | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
Language spoke at home | 0.026/8 | 0.001/15 | 0.010/14 | |||
Only English | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
English and additional language | 0.64 (0.43 to 0.95) | 0.98 (0.84 to 1.13) | 0.70 (0.48 to 1.02) | |||
Not English | 0.61 (0.39 to 0.95) | 0.93 (0.72 to 1.21) | 0.37 (0.18 to 0.75) | |||
Parents employment status | 0.142/2 | 0.015/5 | 0.064/4 | |||
Both parents in work | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
One parent in work | 1.13 (0.90 to 1.51) | 1.08 (0.90 to 1.12) | 0.89 (0.91 to 1.54) | |||
Neither parent in work | 1.98 (1.12 to 4.18) | 1.32 (0.96 to 1.41) | 1.93 (1.19 to 2.32) | |||
Deprivation-IMD | 0.068/5 | 0.020/4 | 0.026/9 | |||
1 quintile- highest | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
2 quintiles | 1.45 (0.98 to 2.22) | 1.13 (0.97 to 1.31) | 0.84 (0.60 to 1.19) | |||
3 quintiles | 1.66 (1.12 to 2.45) | 1.14 (0.99 to 1.31) | 1.03 (0.75 to 1.41) | |||
4 quintiles | 1.57 (1.07 to 2.31) | 1.15 (1.00 to 1.33) | 1.40 (1.04 to 1.88) | |||
5 quintile- lowest | 1.84 (1.28 to 2.66) | 1.23 (1.06 to 1.42) | 1.10 (0.81 to 1.49) | |||
Child gender | 0.009/14 | 0.013/6 | 0.023/11 | |||
Male | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
Female | 1.30 (1.10 to 1.54) | 1.15 (1.06 to 1.24) | 0.71 (0.60 to 0.83) | |||
Child birth weight | 0.008/16 | 0.001/17 | 0.001/20 | |||
Normal (≥2.5 to ≤4.5 kg) | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
Low (<2.5 kg) | 0.92 (0.65 to 1.30) | 1.00 (0.84 to 1.20) | 1.19 (0.88 to 1.62) | |||
High (>4.5 kg) | 1.19 (0.71 to 1.99) | 1.10 (0.83 to 1.34) | 0.70 (0.33 to 1.48) | |||
Gestational age | 0.001/22 | 0.001/16 | 0.001/23 | |||
Term, 37–41 weeks | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
Preterm, 23 to 36 weeks | 1.50 (1.03 to 2.17) | 1.00 (0.85 to 1.19) | 1.01 (0.70 to 1.45) | |||
Post-term, 42– 43 weeks | 0.79 (0.59 to 1.05) | 1.10 (1.00 to 1.22) | 0.97 (0.78 to 1.21) | |||
Smoking in pregnancy | 0.017/11 | 0.026/3 | 0.067/2 | |||
None | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
1–10 cigarettes/day | 1.01 (0.78 to 1.31) | 1.15 (1.03 to 1.29) | 1.18 (0.98 to 1.43) | |||
11–20 cigarettes/day | 0.94 (0.63 to 1.41) | 1.34 (1.14 to 1.57) | 1.63 (1.24 to 2.13) | |||
>20 cigarettes/day | 1.71 (1.04 to 2.28) | 1.38 (1.04 to 1.83) | 1.31 (0.83 to 2.05) | |||
Alcohol consumption in pregnancy | 0.016/12 | 0.010/7 | 0.004/19 | |||
No | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
Yes | 0.94 (0.75 to 1.16) | 0.88 (0.81 to 0.95) | 0.95 (0.80 to 1.14) | |||
Breastfeeding initiation | 0.029/7 | 0.008/8 | 0.004/18 | |||
Yes | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
No | 1.05 (0.87 to 1.27) | 1.00 (0.91 to 1.10) | 0.94 (0.81 to 1.10) | |||
Maternal depression or anxiety | 0.009/15 | 0.007/9 | 0.071/6 | |||
No Yes | Ref 1.08 (0.90 to 1.30) | Ref 1.06 (0.98 to 1.16) | Ref 1.33 (1.13 to 1.57) | |||
Type of delivery | 0.001/19 | 0.002/12 | 0.001/22 | |||
Normal Assisted (forceps, vacuum, breach) | Ref 1.17 (0.80 to 1.70) | Ref 0.90 (0.79 to 1.01) | Ref 1.00 (0.71 to 1.40) | |||
Planned caesarean | 1.18 (0.88 to 1.58) | 1.06 (0.93 to 1.20) | 0.81 (0.63 to 1.04) | |||
Emergency caesarean | 1.03 (0.80 to 1.34) | 0.99 (0.89 to 1.11) | 1.07 (0.86 to 1.32) | |||
Other | 1.10 (0.26 to 4.61) | 0.82 (0.47 to 1.43) | 1.17 (0.57 to 2.37) | |||
Mother BMI before born | 0.007/17 | 0.291/2 | 0.017/12 | |||
Normal | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
Overweight/obese | 1.26 (1.05 to 1.52) | 1.85 (1.70 to 2.00) | 1.32 (1.13 to 1.53) | |||
Mother disability or illness | 0.004/21 | 0.006/10 | 0.025/10 | |||
No | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
Yes | 0.88 (0.72 to 1.07) | 1.07 (0.98 to 1.17) | 1.26 (1.08 to 1.46) | |||
Hearing problems age 3 | 0.008/20 | 0.001/23 | 0.007/16 | |||
No | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
Yes | 0.93 (0.64 to 1.36) | 1.12 (0.97 to 1.29) | 1.10 (0.83 to 1.46) | |||
Concern about child’s speech age 3 | 0.043/6 | 0.001/21 | 0.066/3 | |||
No | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
Yes | 1.60 (1.23 to 2.08) | 1.01 (0.90 to 1.15) | 1.59 (1.30 to 1.95) | |||
Understands child’s speech age 3 | 0.108/3 | 0.001/20 | 0.046/5 | |||
Always | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
Sometimes | 0.97 (0.64 to 1.47) | 0.75 (0.57 to 0.98) | 0.88 (0.60 to 1.30) | |||
Rarely | 2.16 (1.35 to 3.46) | 1.10 (0.68 to 1.76) | 1.08 (0.63 to 1.85) | |||
Walkup steps age 3 | 0.011/13 | 0.002/13 | 0.010/15 | |||
Yes | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
With help | 1.00 (0.57 to 1.76) | 0.79 (0.59 to 1.07) | 1.07 (0.73 to 1.57) | |||
No | 1.67 (1.08 to 2.58) | 1.28 (1.00 to 1.63) | 1.27 (0.86 to 1.88) | |||
Child disability or illness age 3 | 0.004/18 | 0.001/22 | 0.031/8 | |||
No | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
Yes | 1.09 (0.87 to 1.35) | 0.96 (0.88 to 1.05) | 1.36 (1.16 to 1.60) | |||
Naming vocabulary disability age 3 | 0.362/1 | 0.001/19 | 0.015/13 | |||
No language disability | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
Language disability | 2.51 (1.95 to 3.23) | 0.98 (0.86 to 1.13) | 1.10 (0.83 to 1.45) | |||
SDQ age 3 | 0.094/4 | 0.001/18 | 0.502/1 | |||
No related problems | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
Behavioural problems | 1.39 (1.12 to 1.72) | 0.98 (0.87 to 1.10) | 2.68 (2.22 to 3.23) | |||
BMI age 3 | 0.001/23 | 0.589/1 | 0.001/21 | |||
Normal weight | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
Overweight/obese | 0.92 (0.73 to 1.17) | 2.47 (2.28 to 2.67) | 1.05 (0.88 to 1.27) | |||
Hosmer-Lemeshow/p values‡ | 5.19/0.737 | 4.65/0.794 | 14.42/0.071 |
MCS, 2001–2012, UK (imputed data, n=10 262).
*Model 2 includes information collected in maternity services in England plus correspondent factors assessed in MCS at age 3 that are collected on 2.5-year-old health check in England.
†SDS and weighted ranking of predictive risk variables.
‡Calibration analyses.
BMI, body mass index; IMD, Index of Multiple Deprivation; MCS, Millennium Cohort Study; SDQ, Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire; SDS, Standardised Dominance Statistic.