Growth models. 2009–2014 (alcohol-related) public order offences (per 1000 people)
Parameter | Unadjusted (SE) | Adjusted 1 (SE) | Adjusted 2 (SE) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Linear trend | Quadratic trend | Linear trend | Quadratic trend | Linear trend | Quadratic trend | |
Baseline (year 2009) | 1.290 (0.062) | 1.010 (0.112) | 1.143 (0.172) | |||
Trend (2009–2014) | −0.227 (0.013) | 0.013 (0.001) | −0.227 (0.013) | 0.013 (0.001) | −0.310 (0.037) | 0.023 (0.003) |
p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | |
Effect on intercept | ||||||
No policy | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
Low policy | −0.060 (0.120) | −0.104 (0.118) | −0.068 (0.116) | |||
Medium | 0.141 (0.096) | 0.045 (0.094) | 0.111 (0.094) | |||
High policy | 0.678 (0.115) | 0.338 (0.117) | 0.495 (0.124) | |||
p<0.001 | p=0.010 | p<0.001 | ||||
Deprivation at baseline | 2.536 (0.396) | 4.233 (0.676) | ||||
p<0.001 | p<0.001 | |||||
Population at baseline | 0.012 (0.023) | −0.189 (0.040) | ||||
p=0.615 | p<0.001 | |||||
Outlet density at baseline | 0.006 (0.001) | 0.005 (0.002) | ||||
p<0.001 | p=0.004 | |||||
Alcohol-related hospital admissions at baseline | −0.002 (0.001) | −0.003 (0.001) | ||||
p=0.11 | p=0.027 | |||||
Effects on slope | ||||||
Low policy | 0.069 (0.025) | −0.006 (0.002) | 0.069 (0.025) | −0.005 (0.002) | 0.063 (0.025) | −0.005 (0.002) |
Medium | 0.069 (0.020) | −0.007 (0.002) | 0.069 (0.020) | −0.007 (0.002) | 0.055 (0.020) | −0.007 (0.002) |
High policy | −0.058 (0.024) | 0.006 (0.002) | −0.058 (0.024) | 0.006 (0.002) | −0.080 (0.027) | 0.006 (0.002) |
p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | |
Deprivation at baseline | −1.130 (0.144) | 0.135 (0.012) | ||||
p<0.001 | p<0.001 | |||||
Population at baseline | 0.067 (0.009) | −0.005 (0.001) | ||||
p<0.001 | p<0.001 | |||||
Outlet density at baseline | 0.000 (0.000) | −0.000 (0.000) | ||||
p=0.243 | p=0.220 | |||||
Alcohol-related hospital admissions at baseline | 0.001 (0.000) | −0.000 (0.000) | ||||
p<0.001 | p<0.001 | |||||
Variance | Estimates | Explained† | Estimates | Explained† | Estimates | Explained† |
Intercept | 0.3703 | 9% | 0.352 | 14% | 0.336 | 18% |
Slope | 0.006 | 0% | 0.006 | 0% | 0.005 | 7% |
Residual | 0.023 | 3% | 0.023 | 1% | 0.022 | 3% |
R2 | 93.2% | 93.2% | 93.4% |
Bold indicates p<0.05.
All models also adjusted for quarter (ie, 3-month period).
†Explained variance relative to model without explanatory variables (ie, only time trends as fixed effects).