Frequencies, means and numbers of excess deaths differentiated by sex, age and cause of death, and applied model
| Number of deaths | Average number of daily deaths | All matches | International competition | Final model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of excess deaths (99% CI) | Number of excess deaths (99% CI) | ||||
| All cases | 11 225 966 | 2270.2 | −1.9 (−17.3 to 13.5) | 0.1 (−4.2 to 4.4) | ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)7 |
| Men | 5 238 004 | 1063.8 | 2.3 (−6.8 to 11.4) | −21.7 (−42.4 to −1.1) | ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)7 |
| <50 years | 458 340 | 93.4 | 0.1 (−2.1 to 2.2) | −2.0 (−7.0 to 2.9) | ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)7 |
| 50–70 years | 1 628 679 | 332.2 | 1.3 (−3.0 to 5.7) | −3.6 (−13.6 to 6.5) | ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)7 |
| >70 years | 3 150 985 | 643.2 | 0.8 (−5.5 to 7.1) | −15.6 (−30.0 to −1.2) | ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)7 |
| External causes/injuries | 288 625 | 58.9 | −0.3 (−2.1 to 1.4) | −1.2 (−5.2 to 2.8) | ARIMA(1,0,2)(0,1,1)7 |
| Car accidents | 74 970 | 13.8 | 0.5 (−0.3 to 1.3) | 0.5 (−1.4 to 2.3) | ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,1,1) |
| Suicides | 120 120 | 21.9 | −0.4 (−1.3 to 0.6) | −0.2 (−2.4 to 2) | ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1) |
| Circulatory system | 2 004 967 | 409.2 | −0.5 (−5.4 to 4.4) | −7.3 (−18.6 to 4.1) | ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,1,1)7 |
| Myocardial infarction | 1 156 005 | 210.9 | 1.3 (−1.8 to 4.4) | 0.1 (−7.4 to 7.7) | ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,1,1) |
| Stroke | 428 211 | 78.2 | −0.9 (−2.7 to 0.9) | −2.2 (−6.6 to 2.1) | ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1) |
| Remaining causes | 2 944 412 | 599.8 | 2.7 (−3.4 to 8.8) | −12.6 (−26.6 to 1.3) | ARIMA(1,0,3)(0,1,1)7 |
| Obstructive airway disease | 234 301 | 42.8 | 0.6 (−0.7 to 1.9) | −0.7 (−3.8 to 2.4) | ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1) |
| Women | 5 987 962 | 1218.6 | −4.0 (−13.7 to 5.7) | −11.6 (−33.7 to 10.5) | ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,1,1)7 |
| <50 years | 227 861 | 46.6 | −0.7 (−2.1 to 0.8) | −0.7 (−3.9 to 2.5) | ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,1,1)7 |
| 50–70 years | 833 416 | 170.1 | −2.0 (−4.8 to 0.9) | −3.8 (−0.4 to 2.8) | ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,1,1)7 |
| >70 years | 4 926 685 | 1004.4 | −1.0 (−9.5 to 7.5) | −7.0 (−26.4 to 12.5) | ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,1,1)7 |
| External causes/injuries | 171 766 | 35.1 | 0.5 (−0.7 to 1.8) | −0.4 (−3.3 to 2.5) | ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)7 |
| Car accidents | 24 409 | 6.4 | 0.3 (−0.3 to 0.9) | −0.3 (−1.8 to 1.1) | ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1) |
| Suicides | 43 045 | 8.4 | 0.3 (−0.3 to 0.8) | −0.1 (−1.3 to 1.2) | ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1) |
| Circulatory system | 2 803 928 | 572.1 | 0.5 (−5.4 to 6.4) | −2.4 (−15.9 to 11.3) | ARIMA(1,0,2)(0,1,1)7 |
| Myocardial infarction | 1 258 717 | 229.7 | 0.7 (−2.6 to 3.9) | −4.9 (−12.8 to 2.9) | ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1) |
| Stroke | 742 532 | 135.5 | 0.6 (−1.8 to 3) | 2.2 (−3.5 to 7.9) | ARIMA(3,0,1)(0,1,1) |
| Remaining causes | 3 012 268 | 614.5 | −4.3 (−10.6 to 2.0) | −9.0 (−23.5 to 5.5) | ARIMA(1,0,2)(0,1,1)7 |
| Obstructive airway disease | 163 198 | 29.8 | −0.3 (−1.4 to 0.8) | 0.5 (−2.1 to 3.1) | ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1) |
Causes of death (External causes/injuries, Circulatory system, Obstructive airway disease) as defined by ‘Research Data Centres (RDCs) of the Federal Statistical Office and the Statistical Offices of the Länder’12 with respective subgroups.