Mean, minimum and maximum estimates of heat-related and cold-related deaths in UK regions/year/100000 population of all ages based on an ensemble of nine climate model realisations
| 2000s | 2020s | 2050s | 2080s | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | Minimum | Maximum | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | |
| Heat deaths* | ||||||||||||
| North East | 1.2 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 10.0 |
| North West | 1.3 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 9.8 |
| Yorks & Hum | 1.4 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 12.1 |
| East Midlands | 4.4 | 1.4 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 10.2 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 21.0 | 18.4 | 10.2 | 28.1 |
| West Midlands | 4.2 | 1.1 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 22.0 | 17.2 | 8.8 | 25.9 |
| East England | 3.9 | 1.1 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 17.6 | 15.5 | 8.1 | 23.8 |
| London | 4.4 | 0.9 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 4.3 | 21.4 | 17.5 | 8.4 | 27.9 |
| South East | 6.3 | 1.5 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 14.1 | 15.3 | 6.7 | 26.1 | 22.9 | 12.8 | 34.1 |
| South West | 3.5 | 0.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 18.9 | 15.3 | 7.8 | 23.7 |
| Wales | 2.4 | 0.7 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 14.3 | 10.6 | 5.3 | 16.2 |
| Scotland | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 7.2 |
| Northern Ireland | 0.9 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 7.2 |
| Total UK | 3.3 | 0.9 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 16.8 | 14.0 | 7.4 | 21.5 |
| Cold deaths | ||||||||||||
| North East | 60.4 | 52.9 | 73.7 | 53.9 | 47.7 | 68.1 | 44.1 | 38.6 | 54.9 | 35.0 | 23.8 | 49.1 |
| North West | 76.5 | 67.9 | 91.6 | 69.6 | 63.1 | 85.8 | 57.7 | 51.7 | 69.8 | 47.4 | 33.5 | 64.2 |
| Yorks & Hum | 62.9 | 55.5 | 75.3 | 56.9 | 51.5 | 69.9 | 47.0 | 41.9 | 56.7 | 38.3 | 27.2 | 51.8 |
| East Midlands | 67.3 | 57.0 | 80.8 | 60.7 | 55.6 | 74.2 | 48.9 | 44.2 | 59.1 | 39.3 | 27.1 | 53.9 |
| West Midlands | 63.5 | 53.7 | 75.9 | 57.5 | 52.5 | 70.8 | 46.4 | 41.9 | 56.2 | 37.4 | 25.3 | 51.5 |
| East England | 68.8 | 58.1 | 81.8 | 62.5 | 57.6 | 74.8 | 50.2 | 45.4 | 59.5 | 40.7 | 28.4 | 54.9 |
| London | 77.3 | 65.9 | 89.6 | 71.0 | 65.8 | 83.1 | 58.4 | 53.2 | 67.5 | 48.8 | 35.7 | 63.0 |
| South East | 71.2 | 59.6 | 84.3 | 64.6 | 58.8 | 77.0 | 51.6 | 45.7 | 60.9 | 41.6 | 28.5 | 56.3 |
| South West | 70.5 | 60.0 | 85.4 | 63.5 | 56.6 | 79.2 | 49.7 | 44.3 | 60.6 | 38.6 | 24.4 | 56.0 |
| Wales | 83.9 | 73.7 | 101.8 | 76.1 | 69.4 | 95.5 | 61.1 | 54.5 | 75.1 | 48.7 | 31.9 | 69.3 |
| Scotland | 55.6 | 48.2 | 71.9 | 49.3 | 42.4 | 66.3 | 40.8 | 34.3 | 53.5 | 31.2 | 19.8 | 46.4 |
| Northern Ireland | 46.7 | 40.3 | 59.4 | 41.5 | 35.5 | 55.0 | 34.1 | 29.2 | 43.6 | 26.5 | 16.6 | 39.1 |
| Total UK | 68.7 | 59.4 | 82.5 | 62.3 | 57.1 | 76.4 | 50.6 | 45.7 | 61.0 | 40.9 | 28.2 | 56.0 |
*The additional heat-wave effect in London is not included to aid regional comparisons.