Table 1

Mean, minimum and maximum estimates of heat-related and cold-related deaths in UK regions/year/100000 population of all ages based on an ensemble of nine climate model realisations

2000s2020s2050s2080s
MeanMinimumMaximumMeanMinimumMaximumMeanMinimumMaximumMeanMinimumMaximum
Heat deaths*
 North East1.20.52.12.11.32.93.92.27.86.74.010.0
 North West1.30.33.12.00.83.93.71.89.06.23.09.8
 Yorks & Hum1.40.52.82.31.13.84.42.09.87.63.812.1
 East Midlands4.41.48.16.53.310.211.54.821.018.410.228.1
 West Midlands4.21.18.36.13.010.011.15.022.017.28.825.9
 East England3.91.17.45.62.98.89.93.917.615.58.123.8
 London4.40.98.86.12.810.811.34.321.417.58.427.9
 South East6.31.511.48.64.614.115.36.726.122.912.834.1
 South West3.50.77.65.12.48.79.64.318.915.37.823.7
 Wales2.40.75.73.51.65.86.53.114.310.65.316.2
 Scotland0.70.21.51.30.32.22.41.35.24.42.67.2
 Northern Ireland0.90.32.31.60.62.62.91.56.14.92.97.2
 Total UK3.30.96.04.82.47.88.83.916.814.07.421.5
Cold deaths
 North East60.452.973.753.947.768.144.138.654.935.023.849.1
 North West76.567.991.669.663.185.857.751.769.847.433.564.2
 Yorks & Hum62.955.575.356.951.569.947.041.956.738.327.251.8
 East Midlands67.357.080.860.755.674.248.944.259.139.327.153.9
 West Midlands63.553.775.957.552.570.846.441.956.237.425.351.5
 East England68.858.181.862.557.674.850.245.459.540.728.454.9
 London77.365.989.671.065.883.158.453.267.548.835.763.0
 South East71.259.684.364.658.877.051.645.760.941.628.556.3
 South West70.560.085.463.556.679.249.744.360.638.624.456.0
 Wales83.973.7101.876.169.495.561.154.575.148.731.969.3
 Scotland55.648.271.949.342.466.340.834.353.531.219.846.4
 Northern Ireland46.740.359.441.535.555.034.129.243.626.516.639.1
 Total UK68.759.482.562.357.176.450.645.761.040.928.256.0
  • *The additional heat-wave effect in London is not included to aid regional comparisons.