Table 2

ORs (95% CIs) for disability or death

DisabilityDeath
PredictorAge/sex-adjustedMultiadjusted*Age/sex-adjustedMultiadjusted*
Age1.41 (1.00 to 1.98)1.12 (1.09 to 1.16)1.12 (1.09 to 1.16)1.14 (1.10 to 1.17)
Female sex1.12 (1.09 to 1.16)1.67 (1.13 to 2.45)0.43 (0.32 to 0.60)0.43 (0.30 to 0.63)
Current smoker1.77 (1.17 to 2.68)1.81 (1.18 to 2.78)3.30 (2.33 to 4.67)3.23 (2.27 to 4.61)
BMI (normal weight reference)
 Overweight1.39 (0.88 to 2.21)1.32 (0.83 to 2.11)0.83 (0.57 to 1.23)0.83 (0.56 to 1.24)
 Obese3.32 (2.11 to 5.21)2.95 (1.83 to 4.77)1.45 (0.97 to 2.17)1.38 (0.89 to 2.13)
Hypertension1.21 (0.81 to 1.81)1.37 (0.96 to 1.95)
Diabetes2.94 (1.73 to 4.99)1.96 (1.11 to 3.45)3.22 (2.04 to 5.10)2.85 (1.75 to 4.63)
Total cholesterol1.08 (0.91 to 1.30)1.14 (0.97 to 1.34)
HDL-cholesterol0.50 (0.31 to 0.81)0.95 (0.53 to 1.67)0.72 (0.45 to 1.14)1.03 (0.60 to 1.77)
TG1.21 (1.07 to 1.37)1.08 (0.92 to 1.26)1.10 (0.97 to 1.24)1.00 (0.86 to 1.17)
AUC (95% CI) (FOS)0.72 (0.68 to 0.75)0.76 (0.73 to 0.80)
AUC (95% CI) (AusDiab)0.65 (0.60 to 0.70)0.72 (0.68 to 0.75)
Brier score (FOS)0.070.08
Brier score (AusDiab)0.060.10
  • *Adjusted for age, sex, smoking, BMI, diabetes, HDL-cholesterol and TG.

  • AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; BMI, body mass index; HDL, high-density lipoproteins; TC, total cholesterol; TG, triglycerides.