Table 1

Selected numerical data for four candidate conditions

ConditionInnovationTiming of introduction of innovation (range of variation between earliest and latest adopter)Number of matches between innovation and mortality trend change (out of total number of possible matches)Timing of corresponding change in mortality trend (range of variation between earliest and latest change, by gender)Delphi results: median score and whether consensus was achievedCorrelation between recent mortality level and mortality level before favourable change in trend Correlation between recent mortality level and mortality decline since favourable change in trend§
HIV/AIDSAntiretroviral treatment1987 the Netherlands—1995 Estonia11/14M: 1989 the Netherlands—1997 Estonia7; noM: 0.53M: 0.50
F: 1994 France—1995 Germany, Spain, SwedenF: 0.91**F: −0.27
Hodgkin's disease High-dose therapy and peripheral blood stem cell transplantation1985 Sweden—1999 UK3/12NA7; noM: −0.40M: 0.76*
F: 0.00F: 0.73
Breast cancer1) Screening with mammography1) 1975 the Netherlands—2005 Estonia5/14NA8; noF: 0.84**F: −0.19
2) Treatment with Tamoxifen2) 1976 UK and Sweden—1992 Estonia
Cerebrovascular disease1) Detection and treatment of hypertension1) 1970 Sweden—1997 Estonia17/241) M: 1974 Sweden—2003 Estonia7; yesM: 0.56M: 0.79**
F: 1975 Sweden—2003 EstoniaF: 0.80**F: 0.66*
2) Intensive management of stroke†† 2) 1992 France—1998 UK and Estonia2) M: 1996 Germany—2003 Estonia, UK
F: 2002 the Netherlands—2003 Estonia, UK
  • *p<0.1, **p<0.05.

  • On a scale from 1 to 9.

  • Recent=2005; mortality level before favourable change=1995 for HIV, 1984 for Hodgkin's disease, 1991 for breast cancer and 1970 for cerebrovascular disease.

  • § Positive correlations mean: lower mortality levels in 2005 are associated with steeper decreases in mortality. Seefor years.

  • No mortality data on Hodgkin's disease were available for Estonia.

  • †† No timing of introduction of intensive management of stroke was available for Spain and Sweden.

  • F, female, M, male.