Table 1

Uses of predictive risk algorithms in the population setting

UsesCalculation method
Embedded ImageProjection
 Estimate the number of people who will develop a disease or condition (for people without the disease) or disease complication (for people with the disease)Calculate baseline risk for a population-based sample of people
Embedded ImageDescription
 Describe the level of risk diffusion in the population—whether population risk is diffused or concentratedPlot baseline risk for population deciles and/or calculate gini coefficient and related terms
 Describe the change in population risk over timeCalculate baseline risk at different time periods
 Identify target populations at high baseline riskCalculate baseline risk for a population-based sample of people Categorise the population into different levels of baseline risk
Embedded ImageEvaluation
 Estimate the population health benefit of interventionsPopulation health benefit = target population size × baseline risk × relative bvenefit
 Estimate the population health benefit of risk factor reductionRecalculate population baseline risk assuming risk factor exposure is reduced or eliminated; or, the same as the estimate of health benefit of interventions: population risk factor reduction benefit = target population size × baseline risk × relative reduction of outcome per unit of risk factor reduction × units of risk factor reduction
 Estimating the contribution of risk factor levels on future population riskSame as above