Table 2

Twelve-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) scores at baseline and 5-year risk of disability pension—Cox proportional hazards regression models

GHQ-12 score at baselineModel 1*Model 2Model 3PAF§ (95% CI)
HR (95% CI)HR (95% CI)HR (95% CI)
1–22.1 (1.6 to 2.6)2.0 (1.6 to 2.5)1.7 (1.4 to 2.2)7.0 (3.9 to 10.0)
3–72.9 (2.4 to 3.6)2.8 (2.2 to 3.4)2.2 (1.8 to 2.8)12.3 (9.6 to 15.0)
8–126.5 (5.3 to 8.0)5.8 (4.7 to 7.1)4.0 (3.2 to 5.0)18.8 (13.3 to 24.4)
Aggregate PAF:38.1 (26.2 to 48.8)
  • * Model 1: Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CIs derived from Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for age and gender.

  • Model 2: Model 1 further adjusted for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors including being born in or outside Sweden, cohabiting or living alone, employed or not, occupational socioeconomic class in seven groups, highest education status, gross household income in four quartiles, sedentary or active lifestyle, cannabis use in past year, daily smoking and body mass index in four groups.

  • Model 3: Model 2 further adjusted for self-reported daily pain (binary variable) and presence of physical illness in three groups (no physical illness, self-reported chronic physical illness diagnosed by doctor but not on secondary care register, and secondary care diagnosis of any physical illness on register) and secondary care register diagnosis of a common mental disorder or any other psychiatric illness.

  • § PAF, population attributable risk fraction, expressed as percentage of outcome that would be prevented if the risk factor was completely eliminated from the population.