Table 2

Summary of fit of models (lag 0–1 mean temp)—all regions combined

Model descriptiondfDevianceAIC
No temperature160.00.00.0
 3 df190.0−1730.3−1697.4
 4 df200.0−1766.9−1712.2
 5 df210.0−1784.3−1707.4
 6 df220.0−1805.8−1706.7
Threshold models
 Linear: separate thresholds and slopes180.0−1674.8−1663.7
 Linear: threshold at 93rd centile; separate slopes171.0−1629.9−1638.0
 +Quadratic terms181.0−1707.6−1694.7
 Linear: threshold at 93rd centile; slopes constrained163.0−1610.1−1635.6
Alternative temperature measures (as 4 df splines)
 Max (ie, core model)200.0−1766.9−1712.2
 Min200.0−676.7−595.2
 Mean200.0−1522.4−1461.9
 Mean apparent temperature200.0−1418.7−1355.7
 Max apparent temperature200.0−1742.7−1687.4
Further models with 4 df temp spline:
 Add 4 df spline for minimum temperature240.0−1955.0−1814.7
 Knots placed at equal °C200.0−1793.9−1739.9
 Lag 0200.0−1703.6−1647.0
 Lag 1200.01322.01256.8
 Lag 0–2200.0−1554.1−1494.5
  • All models have the core covariate terms (day-of-year spline, linear-quadratic long-term trend, day-of-week indicators, relative humidity spline) unless otherwise specified.

  • Deviance and AIC expressed relative to model with non-temperature terms (20695.1 and 21089.0, respectively).