Table 1

Summary of papers reviewed

SettingStudy periodMortality outcomeDaily temperature exposureLag structure of temperatureHeat threshold °C% change in mortality per 1°C temperature increase (95% CI)Notes:
Baccini et al32Athens, Greece
Barcelona, Spain
Budapest, Hungary
Dublin, Ireland
Helsinki, Finland
Ljubljana, Slovenia
London, UK
Milan, Italy
Paris, France
Prague, Czech Rep
Rome, Italy
Stockholm, Sweden
Turin, Italy
Valencia, Spain
Zurich, Switzerland
1992–96
1992–2000
1992–2001
1990–2000
1990–2000
1992–99
1992–2000
1991–98
1992–2000
1992–2000
1992–2000
1990–2000
1991–99
1995–2000
1990–96
All-cause (exc. ext.)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Max app.
Mean app.
Max app.
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Lags 0–3 days
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
32.7
22.4
22.8
23.9
23.6
21.5
23.9
31.8
24.1
22.0
30.3
21.7
27.0
28.2
21.8
5.54 (4.30 to 6.80)
1.56 (1.04 to 2.08)
1.74 (1.47 to 2.02)
−0.02 (−5.38 to 5.65)
3.72 (1.68 to 5.81)
1.34 (0.32 to 2.37)
1.54 (1.01 to 2.08)
4.29 (3.35 to 5.24)
2.44 (2.08 to 2.80)
1.91 (1.39 to 2.44)
5.25 (4.57 to 5.93)
1.17 (0.41 to 1.94)
3.32 (2.53 to 4.13)
0.56 (−0.35 to 1.47)
1.37 (0.49 to 2.25)
Keatinge et al26Netherlands
Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany
1988–92
+
All-cause (65–74 years)
+
Mean
+
Lag 0
+
17.3 to 20.3
19.0 to 22.0
1.3 (0.4, 2.3)
1.4 (0.6, 2.2)
- Minimum mortality temperature given in 3° bands. Mid-point value assumed for threshold in meta-regression
- No indication of seasonal adjustment
Curriero et al27 28Boston, USA
Chicago, USA
New York, USA
Philadelphia, USA
Baltimore, USA
Washington, USA
Charlotte, USA
Atlanta, USA
Jacksonville, USA
Tampa, USA
Miami, USA
1973–94
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
All-cause (exc. ext.)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Mean
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Lag 0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
20.9
18.4
19.1
21.4
21.4
21.4
32.4
24.6
24.9
27.1
27.2
2.93
1.28
2.61
2.81
2.57
1.37
N/A
2.98
1.91
1.55
2.31
Zanobetti et al31Birmingham, USA
Dallas, USA
Detroit, USA
Houston, USA
Minneapolis, USA
Phoenix, USA
1999–2000
1999–2002
+
+
+
1999–2000
All-cause (exc. ext.)
+
+
+
+
+
Mean app.
+
+
+
+
+
Lag 0
+
+
+
+
+
0.36 (−0.48 to 1.16)
−0.08 (−0.54 to 0.36)
0.60 (0.34 to 0.90)
0.32 (−0.12 to 0.74)
0.58 (0.16 to 1.00)
0.64 (−0.04 to 1.32)
- Summer months only
- Heat thresholds for meta-regression taken as minimum values within summer months
- Heat slopes approximated from graphical presentation
Basu et al30Contra Costa, USA
Fresno, USA
Kern, USA
Los Angeles, USA
Orange, USA
Riverside, USA
Sacramento, USA
San Diego, USA
Santa Clara, USA
May 1999–Sep 2003
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
All-cause (exc. ext.)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Mean app.
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Lag 0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0.40 (−0.16 to 0.96)
0.16 (−0.60 to 0.92)
0.44 (−0.16 to 1.04)
0.88 (0.60 to 1.16)
−0.08 (−0.76 to 0.60)
0.36 (−0.20 to 0.92)
0.56 (0.04 to 1.08)
0.24 (−0.20 to 0.68)
1.28 (0.60 to 1.96)
- Summer months only
- Heat thresholds for meta-regression taken as minimum values within summer months
- Heat slopes approximated from graphical presentation
Kim et al29Seoul, South Korea
Daegu, South Korea
Incheon, South Korea
Gwangju, South Korea
Daejeon, South Korea
Busan, South Korea
1994–2003
+
+
+
+
+
All-cause (exc. ext.)
+
+
+
+
+
Mean
+
+
+
+
+
Lag 0
+
+
+
+
+
28.1
28.1
26.6
26.6
28.1
N/A
9.60 (8.04 to 11.17)
4.62 (2.74 to 6.54)
5.31 (3.10 to 7.56)
2.64 (0.34 to 5.00)
3.91 (−0.63 to 8.66)
N/A
McMichael et al33Bucharest, Romania
Sofia, Bulgaria
New Delhi, India
Monterrey, Mexico
Mexico City, Mexico
Chiang Mai, Thailand
Bangkok, Thailand
Salvador, Brazil
Sao Paulo, Brazil
Santiago, Chile
Cape Town, South Africa
1994–97
1996–99
1991–94
1996–99
1994–98
1995–97
1991–92
1996–99
1991–94
1988–91
1996–99
All-cause (exc. ext.)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Mean
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Lags 0–1 days
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
22
16
29
31
18
28
29
23
23
16
17
3.30 (2.35 to 4.26)
2.88 (2.11 to 3.65)
3.94 (2.80 to 5.08)
18.8 (13.0 to 25.0)
0.77 (0.14 to 1.39)
2.39 (−0.49 to 5.35)
5.78 (3.52 to 8.09)
2.48 (0.93 to 4.05)
3.46 (2.62 to 4.31)
1.04 (0.28 to 1.81)
0.47 (−0.31 to 1.24)
Hales et al35Christchurch, New ZealandJune 1988 –Dec 1993All-causeMaxLag 020.51.0 (0.4 to 2.1)
Hu et al34Sydney, Australia1994–2004All-causeMaxLag 00.9 (0.6 to 1.3)- Summer months only
- Heat threshold for meta-regression taken as minimum value within summer months
Kan et al36Shanghai, ChinaJune 2000–Dec 2001All-cause (exc. ext.)MeanLags 0–2 days26.70.73- Slope is 0.73% in abstract but 1.21% in full paper
- Slope of 0.73% assumed based on figure
El-zein et al41Beirut, Lebanon1997–99All-causeMeanLag 027.512.3 (5.7 to 19.4)
  • ‘+’, As above; app, apparent temperature; exc. ext, excluding deaths from external causes; Max, maximum.