Table 1 Baseline characteristics of the study sample and their associations with future disability pension
CharacteristicN (%) of participantsN (%) of disability pension casesUnadjusted OR (95% CI)OR (95% CI) for disability pension, adjusted for age and sex
Number of participants25150 (100)93 (100)
Age*1.16 (1.15 to 1.22)1.17 (1.12 to 1.22)
Sex
    Men4764 (19)15 (16)1.001.00
    Women20386 (81)78 (84)1.22 (0.70 to 2.12)1.19 (0.68 to 2.07)
Socioeconomic position
    Upper non-manual7066 (28)20 (22)1.001.00
    Lower non-manual13950 (55)51 (55)1.30 (0.77 to 2.17)1.31 (0.77 to 2.21)
    Manual4134 (16)22 (24)1.90 (1.03 to 3.50)1.90 (1.03 to 3.50)
Health risk behaviour
    Current smoker
        No20267 (81)62 (67)1.001.00
        Yes4883 (19)31 (33)2.08 (1.35 to 3.21)2.16 (1.40 to 3.33)
    Heavy drinker†
        No23834 (95)86 (92)1.001.00
        Yes1316 (5)7 (8)1.47 (0.68 to 3.20)1.46 (0.63 to 3.40)
    Physically inactive‡
        No19431 (77)57 (61)1.001.00
        Yes5719 (23)36 (39)2.15 (1.42 to 3.27)2.08 (1.37 to 3.17)
    Obese (BMI ⩾30 kg/m2)
        No22684 (90)73 (78)1.001.00
        Yes2466 (10)20 (22)2.53 (1.54 to 4.16)2.27 (1.38 to 3.73)
Health indicators
    Cardiovascular disease
        No22722 (90)80 (86)1.001.00
        Yes2428 (10)13 (14)1.52 (0.85 to 2.74)1.10 (0.61 to 1.98)
    Musculoskeletal disease
        No19436 (77)40 (43)1.001.00
        Yes5714 (23)53 (57)4.54 (3.01 to 6.85)3.39 (2.24 to 5.14)
    Respiratory disease
        No22238 (88)66 (71)1.001.00
        Yes2912 (12)27 (29)3.14 (2.01 to 4.93)3.08 (1.96 to 4.83)
    Psychiatric disorder
        No22342 (89)61 (66)1.001.00
        Yes2808 (11)32 (34)4.21 (2.74 to 6.47)3.57 (2.32 to 5.50)
    Psychological distress§
        No18949 (75)54 (58)1.001.00
        Yes6201 (25)39 (42)2.22 (1.47 to 3.35)2.16 (1.43 to 3.26)
    Self-rated health status
        Very good or good20208 (80)29 (31)1.001.00
        Average or worse4942 (20)64 (69)9.13 (5.88 to 14.17)7.17 (4.60 to 11.19)
  • *Mean age 40.2 years, SD 6.9. OR refers to 1 year increase in age.

  • †Average weekly consumption ⩾190 g of absolute alcohol for the women and >275 g for the men  =  heavy drinker.

  • ‡Leisure time physical activity <2 metabolic equivalent task h/d  =  physically inactive.

  • §Individuals scoring ⩾4 using 12-item version of the General Health Questionnaire are classified as psychologically distressed.