Probability of dying between 1965 and 1994; by childhood socioeconomic position and cumulative socioeconomic disadvantage, unadjusted (model 1) and adjusted (model 2) for socioeconomic position after baseline (1965)
| Childhood SEP and age in 1965 | n* | Men | n | Women | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1† | Model 2‡ | Model 1 | Model 2 | ||||||||||||
| Probability (%) | RR | 95% CI | Probability (%) | RR | 95% CI | Probability (%) | RR | 95% CI | Probability (%) | RR | 95% CI | ||||
| RR, risk ratio; SEP, socioeconomic position. | |||||||||||||||
| Probability of death for each socioeconomic category was estimated using the following components: a, model intercept+logit; b, 29×exp(a); c, exp(−b); d, 1−c; where a is the predicted log rate of death per year for the socioeconomic category, b the mean number of deaths in the socioeconomic category during the 29-year reference period (1965–94) assuming a Poisson distribution, c the probability of no death occurring in the reference period and d the probability of death. | |||||||||||||||
| *Number of deaths that occurred in each sex–age subgroup between 1965 and 1994. | |||||||||||||||
| †Adjusted for age within each age group using age centreing. | |||||||||||||||
| ‡Adjusted for age and changes in post-1965 household income. | |||||||||||||||
| 18–35 years | |||||||||||||||
| High | 36 | 8.7 | 1.00 | 11.6 | 1.00 | 26 | 5.0 | 1.00 | 5.7 | 1.00 | |||||
| Medium | 45 | 13.1 | 1.51 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 14.7 | 1.26 | 0.8 to 1.9 | 15 | 3.4 | 0.68 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 3.6 | 0.63 | 0.4 to 1.1 | |
| Low | 22 | 15.2 | 1.75 | 1.0 to 2.9 | 17.1 | 1.47 | 0.9 to 2.5 | 26 | 12.6 | 2.51 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 12.9 | 2.28 | 1.3 to 3.9 | |
| 36–45 years | |||||||||||||||
| High | 82 | 26.3 | 1.00 | 24.9 | 1.00 | 69 | 22.2 | 1.00 | 21.3 | 1.00 | |||||
| Medium | 50 | 27.6 | 1.05 | 0.8 to 1.4 | 27.3 | 1.10 | 0.8 to 1.5 | 64 | 24.0 | 1.08 | 0.8 to 1.5 | 23.8 | 1.12 | 0.8 to 1.5 | |
| Low | 46 | 31.0 | 1.18 | 0.9 to 1.5 | 31.2 | 1.26 | 0.9 to 1.7 | 30 | 22.7 | 1.02 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 24.7 | 1.16 | 0.8 to 1.7 | |
| ⩾46 years | |||||||||||||||
| High | 440 | 71.4 | 1.00 | 70.4 | 1.00 | 547 | 61.8 | 1.00 | 62.1 | 1.00 | |||||
| Medium | 270 | 71.0 | 0.99 | 0.9 to 1.0 | 70.4 | 1.00 | 0.9 to 1.1 | 268 | 65.0 | 1.05 | 1.0 to 1.1 | 66.2 | 1.07 | 1.0 to 1.1 | |
| Low | 205 | 74.1 | 1.04 | 1.0 to 1.1 | 74.4 | 1.06 | 1.0 to 1.1 | 179 | 66.0 | 1.07 | 1.0 to 1.1 | 67.0 | 1.08 | 1.0 to 1.2 | |
| Cumulative disadvantage and age in 1965 | |||||||||||||||
| 18–35 years | |||||||||||||||
| Least exposure | 25 | 8.6 | 1.00 | 11.9 | 1.00 | 11 | 3.3 | 1.00 | 3.6 | 1.00 | |||||
| Moderate exposure | 66 | 12.4 | 1.44 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 14.3 | 1.21 | 0.8 to 1.8 | 35 | 5.1 | 1.56 | 0.7 to 3.6 | 5.3 | 1.47 | 0.7 to 3.1 | |
| Greatest exposure | 11 | 18.9 | 2.20 | 1.1 to 4.4 | 20.1 | 1.70 | 0.9 to 3.4 | 14 | 14.2 | 4.34 | 1.7 to 11.3 | 14.1 | 3.92 | 1.7 to 9.1 | |
| 36–45 years | |||||||||||||||
| Least exposure | 50 | 21.7 | 1.00 | 18.9 | 1.00 | 34 | 16.7 | 1.00 | 12.8 | 1.00 | |||||
| Moderate exposure | 103 | 30.2 | 1.40 | 1.1 to 1.8 | 30.1 | 1.60 | 1.2 to 2.1 | 97 | 23.9 | 1.43 | 1.0 to 2.0 | 25.5 | 2.00 | 1.3 to 3.1 | |
| Greatest exposure | 20 | 34.1 | 1.57 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 35.1 | 1.86 | 1.2 to 3.0 | 24 | 33.2 | 1.98 | 1.3 to 3.1 | 35.8 | 2.80 | 1.7 to 4.6 | |
| ⩾46 years | |||||||||||||||
| Least exposure | 169 | 64.0 | 1.00 | 59.5 | 1.00 | 169 | 59.2 | 1.00 | 56.5 | 1.00 | |||||
| Moderate exposure | 542 | 73.1 | 1.14 | 1.1 to 1.2 | 73.5 | 1.23 | 1.1 to 1.3 | 575 | 62.6 | 1.06 | 1.0 to 1.2 | 64.4 | 1.14 | 1.0 to 1.2 | |
| Greatest exposure | 150 | 76.4 | 1.19 | 1.1 to 1.3 | 76.7 | 1.29 | 1.2 to 1.4 | 137 | 67.9 | 1.15 | 1.0 to 1.3 | 69.1 | 1.22 | 1.1 to 1.4 | |