A comparison of the results for the three estimates from our model
| 1: Tax foods high in saturated fats (Marshall’s proposal) | 2: Tax based on SSCg3d score | 3: Tax to obtain best outcome | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our estimate | Marshall’s estimate 14 | |||
| CVD, cardiovascular disease; IHD, ischaemic heart disease. | ||||
| *Lower estimate based on He’s lower estimate for the effect of salt on CVD and the lower estimate of Katan’s or Law’s method. Higher estimate based on He’s upper estimate for the effect of salt on CVD and the higher estimate of Katan’s or Law’s method. | ||||
| Change in household food expenditure (%) | 3.2 | Not estimated | 4.0 | 4.6 |
| Percentage of total food expenditure taxed | 9.9 | Not estimated | 33.3 | 44.5 |
| Percentage of dietary saturated fat taxed | 41 | 44 | 64 | 80 |
| Change in % calories derived from saturated fat | –0.13 | –0.67 | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| Change in salt intake (%) | 5.2 | Not estimated | –5.8 | –6.6 |
| Change in non-milk extrinsic sugar intake (%) | –1.5 | Not estimated | –7.3 | –7.6 |
| Change in calories consumed (%) | 2.2 | Not estimated | –4.3 | –6.1 |
| Change in fruit and vegetable intake (%) | –1.2 | Not estimated | –3.9 | –3.9 |
| Mean change in serum cholesterol | 0.002 | –0.044 to –0.052 | 0.009 | 0.005 |
| Change in mortality from IHD (%) | 1.3 to 2.0 | –1.8 to –2.6 | –0.8 to –1.1 | –1.2 to–1.5 |
| Change in mortality from stroke (%) | 1.5 to 1.7 | Not estimated | –1.6 to –1.9 | –1.8 to–2.1 |
| Overall change in annual number of CVD deaths (UK) | Increase 2500 to 3500* | Decrease 2100–3100 | Decrease 2100 to 2500* | Decrease 2600 to 3200* |