Table 4

 A comparison of the results for the three estimates from our model

1: Tax foods high in saturated fats (Marshall’s proposal)2: Tax based on SSCg3d score3: Tax to obtain best outcome
Our estimateMarshall’s estimate 14
CVD, cardiovascular disease; IHD, ischaemic heart disease.
*Lower estimate based on He’s lower estimate for the effect of salt on CVD and the lower estimate of Katan’s or Law’s method. Higher estimate based on He’s upper estimate for the effect of salt on CVD and the higher estimate of Katan’s or Law’s method.
Change in household food expenditure (%)3.2Not estimated4.04.6
Percentage of total food expenditure taxed9.9Not estimated33.344.5
Percentage of dietary saturated fat taxed41446480
Change in % calories derived from saturated fat–0.13–0.670.090.05
Change in salt intake (%)5.2Not estimated–5.8–6.6
Change in non-milk extrinsic sugar intake (%)–1.5Not estimated–7.3–7.6
Change in calories consumed (%)2.2Not estimated–4.3–6.1
Change in fruit and vegetable intake (%)–1.2Not estimated–3.9–3.9
Mean change in serum cholesterol0.002–0.044 to –0.0520.0090.005
Change in mortality from IHD (%)1.3 to 2.0–1.8 to –2.6–0.8 to –1.1–1.2 to–1.5
Change in mortality from stroke (%)1.5 to 1.7Not estimated–1.6 to –1.9–1.8 to–2.1
Overall change in annual number of CVD deaths (UK)Increase 2500 to 3500*Decrease 2100–3100Decrease 2100 to 2500*Decrease 2600 to 3200*