Table 3 Adolescent binge drinking and frequency of regular drinking as predictors of adult outcomes
Outcomes at 30 yearsPredictors at 16 yearsORs adjusted for all predictors and socioeconomic status, sex and baseline status where relevant
OR (95% CI)p Value
Professional or managerial social class*Binge drinking0.7 (0.6 to 08)<0.0001
Frequency of regular drinking
Rarely or never1
Weekly or less often1.4 (1.2 to 1.6)<0.0001
Two or more times per week1.2 (1.0 to 1.5)0.05
Interaction term0.9
Alcohol dependency (CAGE high scorer)Binge drinking1.4 (1.1 to 1.9)0.02
Frequency of regular drinking
Rarely or never1
Weekly or less often1.5 (1.1 to 1.9)0.004
Two or more per week1.6 (1.1 to 2.2)0.009
Interaction term0.3
Regular alcohol consumption > recommended units per weekBinge drinking1.3 (1.1 to 1.7)0.01
Frequency of regular drinking
Rarely or never1
Weekly or less often1.5 (1.3 to 1.9)<0.0001
Two or more times per week1.9 (1.5 to 2.4)<0.0001
Interaction term0.11
Used illicit drugs in past 12 months*Binge drinking1.1 (0.8 to 1.4)0.5
Frequency of regular drinking
Rarely or never1
Weekly or less often1.7 (1.3 to 2.1)<0.0001
Two or more times per week2.0 (1.5 to 2.8)<0.0001
Interaction term0.08
Heavy smoker (⩾ 11 cigarettes per day)*Binge drinking(0.6 to 1.3)0.7
Frequency of regular drinking
Rarely or never1
Weekly or less often1.3 (1.0 to 1.8)0.08
Two or more times per week1.1 (0.7 to 1.6)0.7
Interaction term0.7
Psychiatric morbidity (Malaise score ⩾ 7)*Binge drinking1.3 (0.9 to 1.9)0.11
Frequency of regular drinking
Rarely or never1
Weekly or less often1.2 (0.9 to 1.6)0.16
Two or more times per week1.2 (0.8 to 1.7)0.4
Interaction term0.08
History of mental health problems since 16 years*Binge drinking1.0 (0.8 to 1.4)0.9
Frequency of regular drinking
Rarely or never1
Weekly or less often1.2 (1.0 to 1.5)0.06
Two or more times per week1.3 (1.0 to 1.7)0.10
Interaction term0.3
History of homelessness since 16 yearsBinge drinking1.5 (0.9 to 2.3)0.11
Frequency of regular drinking
Rarely or never1
Weekly or less often1.0 (0.7 to 1.6)0.9
Two or more times per week1.2 (0.7 to 2.1)0.4
Interaction term0.3
Conviction (civil or criminal) since 16 years*Binge drinking1.6 (1.2 to 2.3)0.006
Frequency of regular drinking
Rarely or never1
Weekly or less often1.2 (0.9 to 1.7)0.3
Two or more times per week1.4 (1.0 to 2.2)0.07
Interaction term0.9
History of being temporarily excluded from schoolBinge drinking3.4 (1.4 to 8.1)0.006
Frequency of regular drinking
Rarely or never1
Weekly or less often0.6 (0.2 to 1.6)0.3
Two or more times per week1.3 (0.5 to 3.7)0.6
Interaction term0.4
Left school without any qualificationsBinge drinking1.3 (1.0 to 1.6)0.05
Frequency of regular drinking
Rarely or never1
Weekly or less often0.9 (0.7 to 1.1)0.2
Two or more times per week1.0 (0.8 to 1.3)0.9
Interaction term0.004
Significant accident since 16 yearsBinge drinking1.3 (1.1 to 1.6)0.005
Frequency of regular drinking
Rarely or never1
Weekly or less often1.0 (0.8 to 1.2)0.8
Two or more times per week1.1 (0.9 to 1.3)0.6
Interaction term0.06
Pregnancy ⩽ 18 years (females only)Binge drinking0.7 (0.3 to 1.5)0.3
Frequency of regular drinking
Rarely or never1
Weekly or less often1.6 (0.7 to 3.6)0.3
Two or more times per week3.2 (1.3 to 7.8)0.01
Interaction term0.8
  • *Analyses also adjusted for baseline status where appropriate.