Estimate | 95% confidence interval | ||
---|---|---|---|
†The χ2 goodness of fit test statistics with 4 degrees of freedom (0 to 4 and more than 4 secondary transmissions) were 1.39 (p = 0.85) in Madagascar, and 7.14 (p = 0.13), 1.53 (p = 0.82), and 1.90 (p = 0.75) in Mukden according to the highest probability, the serial interval based and the equal probability algorithm, respectively. The numbers of more than four secondary transmissions were combined to meet Cochran’s rule37 because of expected frequencies of less than 1.0. *The basic reproduction number. ‡Decline of the reproduction number (per day). | |||
Madagascar (1957) | R0* | 2.99 | 1.11, 8.77 |
δ‡ | 0.0615 | 0.0127, 0.1140 | |
Mukden (1946) | |||
The highest probability algorithm | R0 | 2.80 | 1.15, 7.40 |
δ | 0.0767 | 0.0198, 0.1411 | |
The serial interval based algorithm | R0 | 2.96 | 1.21, 7.90 |
δ | 0.0812 | 0.0234, 0.1471 | |
The equal probability algorithm | R0 | 3.45 | 1.36, 9.70 |
δ | 0.0950 | 0.0335, 0.1667 |