Hazard ratios (HR) relating to increased incidence of disability pension from 1989 to 1996 for people ⩽50 and >50 years of age on entry into the study according to a decrease by one of initial SOC (continuous variable, range 3–12) score when sex (model 1), sex and initial health as number of reported long term illnesses (model 2) and sex, initial health as number of long term illnesses, and initial level of occupational training were included as explanatory variables (model 3). The final model (model 4) includes the previously mentioned explanatory variables but was also adjusted for initial level of engagement in physical exercise and consumption of alcohol until onset of drunkenness
| Explanatory variable | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 (final model) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR | 95% CI | HR | 95% CI | HR | 95% CI | HR | 95% CI | ||
| NI, variable not included in model. | |||||||||
| Initial age ⩽50 years | |||||||||
| Initial SOC | |||||||||
| Score decrease by one point | 1.81 | 1.39 to 2.36 | 1.59 | 1.21 to 2.09 | 1.59 | 1.19 to 2.10 | 1.56 | 1.15 to 2.12 | |
| Sex | |||||||||
| Female | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |||||
| Male | 2.07 | 0.90 to 4.78 | 2.19 | 0.95 to 5.05 | 2.53 | 1.04 to 6.10 | 2.38 | 0.93 to 6.10 | |
| Initial health | |||||||||
| Number of reported long term illnesses | |||||||||
| None | NI | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |||||
| Mild or moderate functional limitation/ | 4.30 | 1.82 to 10.14 | 4.02 | 1.67 to 9.68 | 4.67 | 1.89 to 11.54 | |||
| Severe or very severe functional limitation | 5.95 | 1.84 to 19.30 | 5.90 | 1.83 to 19.05 | 5.91 | 1.88 to 18.53 | |||
| Initial level of occupational training | |||||||||
| University/institute level | NI | NI | 1.0 | 1.0 | |||||
| Intermediate/none | 1.07 | 0.39 to 2.91 | 0.97 | 0.34 to 2.73 | |||||
| Initial age > 50 years | |||||||||
| Initial SOC | |||||||||
| Score decrease by one point | 1.21 | 1.02 to 1.44 | 1.10 | 0.91 to 1.32 | 1.14 | 0.93 to 1.40 | 1.11 | 0.90 to 1.37 | |
| Sex | |||||||||
| Female | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |||||
| Male | 0.73 | 0.70 to 0.98 | 0.74 | 0.46 to 1.19 | 0.76 | 0.47 to 1.24 | 0.65 | 0.36 to 1.16 | |
| Initial health | |||||||||
| Number of reported long term illnesses | |||||||||
| none | NI | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |||||
| mild or moderate functional limitation/ | 1.81 | 1.09 to 3.03 | 1.97 | 1.17 to 3.34 | 1.91 | 1.12 to 3.26 | |||
| severe or very severe functional limitation | 2.41 | 1.24 to 4.71 | 2.62 | 1.33 to 5.15 | 2.55 | 1.29 to 5.04 | |||
| Initial level of occupational training | |||||||||
| University/institute level | NI | NI | 1.0 | 1.0 | |||||
| Intermediate/none | 1.15 | 0.63 to 2.07 | 1.09 | 0.59 to 2.01 | |||||