Fifteen year follow up in 6194 men with adjusted relative risks (95% CI) for major CVD events, diabetes, and the combined end point according to initial BMI and weight change categories over five years (Q1 to Q5). Adjusted for age, social class, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, antihypertensive treatment, undiagnosed CHD, FEV1, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol
| Number of cases | Loss | Stable | Moderate gain 4%–10% | Substantial gain >10% | p Value linear trend‡ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Significantly/marginally significantly different from stable group, *p <0.05; †0.05<p<0.09. ‡Test for linear trend with weight change fitted as a continuous variable. | ||||||
| Major CVD | ||||||
| <25 | 584 | 1.12 (0.89 to 1.63) | 1.00 | 1.28 (1.06 to 1.55)* | 1.32 (0.99 to 1.76)† | 0.008 |
| 25–27.5 | 447 | 0.90 (0.67 to 1.20) | 1.00 | 0.93 (0.73 to 1.18) | 1.71 (1.10 to 2.66)* | 0.25 |
| 27.5–29.9 | 276 | 0.78 (0.56 to 1.08) | 1.00 | 0.90 (0.64 to 1.28) | 1.54 (0.84 to 2.84) | 0.09 |
| ⩾30 | 147 | 1.25 (0.83 to 1.86) | 1.00 | 0.93 (0.57 to 1.51) | 0.81 (0.34 to 1.94) | 0.54 |
| Diabetes | ||||||
| <25 | 72 | 0.42 (0.10 to 1.74) | 1.00 | 0.97 (0.54 to 1.73) | 2.02 (0.96 to 4.25)† | 0.005 |
| 25–27.5 | 99 | 0.88 (0.43 to 1.82) | 1.00 | 1.75 (1.10 to 2.76)* | 2.24 (0.99 to 5.07)† | 0.03 |
| 27.5–29.9 | 83 | 0.63 (0.33 to 1.21) | 1.00 | 1.15 (0.66 to 2.01) | 0.93 (0.28 to 3.08) | 0.04 |
| ⩾30 | 73 | 0.52 (0.25 to 1.07)† | 1.00 | 1.40 (0.76 to 2.57) | 2.55 (1.04 to 6.29)* | 0.005 |
| Combined end point | ||||||
| <25 | 636 | 1.12 (0.83 to 1.52) | 1.00 | 1.22 (1.02 to 1.47)* | 1.35 (1.03 to 1.77)* | 0.001 |
| 25–27.5 | 514 | 0.92 (0.70 to 1.22) | 1.00 | 1.06 (0.85 to 1.30) | 1.78 (1.19 to 2.68)* | 0.08 |
| 27.5–29.9 | 334 | 0.77 (0.57 to 1.04)† | 1.00 | 0.98 (0.73 to 1.33) | 1.54 (0.89 to 2.67) | 0.01 |
| ⩾30 | 199 | 1.01 (0.70 to 1.46) | 1.00 | 1.10 (0.74 to 1.66) | 1.46 (0.79 to 2.70) | 0.10 |