Table 4

 Fifteen year follow up in 6194 men with adjusted relative risks (95% CI) for major CVD events, diabetes, and the combined end point according to initial BMI and weight change categories over five years (Q1 to Q5). Adjusted for age, social class, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, antihypertensive treatment, undiagnosed CHD, FEV1, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol

Number of casesLossStableModerate gain 4%–10%Substantial gain >10%p Value linear trend‡
Significantly/marginally significantly different from stable group, *p <0.05; †0.05<p<0.09. ‡Test for linear trend with weight change fitted as a continuous variable.
Major CVD
<255841.12 (0.89 to 1.63)1.001.28 (1.06 to 1.55)*1.32 (0.99 to 1.76)†0.008
25–27.54470.90 (0.67 to 1.20)1.000.93 (0.73 to 1.18)1.71 (1.10 to 2.66)*0.25
27.5–29.92760.78 (0.56 to 1.08)1.000.90 (0.64 to 1.28)1.54 (0.84 to 2.84)0.09
⩾301471.25 (0.83 to 1.86)1.000.93 (0.57 to 1.51)0.81 (0.34 to 1.94)0.54
Diabetes
<25720.42 (0.10 to 1.74)1.000.97 (0.54 to 1.73)2.02 (0.96 to 4.25)†0.005
25–27.5990.88 (0.43 to 1.82)1.001.75 (1.10 to 2.76)*2.24 (0.99 to 5.07)†0.03
27.5–29.9830.63 (0.33 to 1.21)1.001.15 (0.66 to 2.01)0.93 (0.28 to 3.08)0.04
⩾30730.52 (0.25 to 1.07)†1.001.40 (0.76 to 2.57)2.55 (1.04 to 6.29)*0.005
Combined end point
<256361.12 (0.83 to 1.52)1.001.22 (1.02 to 1.47)*1.35 (1.03 to 1.77)*0.001
25–27.55140.92 (0.70 to 1.22)1.001.06 (0.85 to 1.30)1.78 (1.19 to 2.68)*0.08
27.5–29.93340.77 (0.57 to 1.04)†1.000.98 (0.73 to 1.33)1.54 (0.89 to 2.67)0.01
⩾301991.01 (0.70 to 1.46)1.001.10 (0.74 to 1.66)1.46 (0.79 to 2.70)0.10