Female 1996 health expectancies compared with projected expectations corresponding to scenarios involving (a) only mortality change since 1981 and (b) mortality change and an allowance for the effect of de-institutionalisation
| Limitation type | Observed (1996) | Mortality decline only† | Mortality decline plus de-institutionalisation‡ | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HE* | 95% interval | HE | 95% interval | HE | 95% interval | |
| *Estimated health expectancy, reproduced (with tow decimal places) from third column of table 4: the mean of the posterior distribution for the relevant health expectancy. †1981 prevalences of functional limitation and institutional care are applied to 1996 mortality data. ‡Adjusted 1981 prevalences of functional limitation are applied to 1996 mortality data and institutional care prevalence data. The adjusted prevalences allow for transfer of people with moderate limitation from institutional care to the non-institutional community. | ||||||
| Age 15 | ||||||
| Institutional care | 1.59 | 1.56 to 1.62 | 1.83 | 1.80 to 1.87 | 1.59 | 1.56 to 1.62 |
| Major mobility | 3.21 | 2.70 to 3.79 | 3.03 | 2.59 to 3.52 | 3.02 | 2.59 to 3.49 |
| Moderate mobility | 4.81 | 4.06 to 5.64 | 1.98 | 1.61 to 2.40 | 2.60 | 2.16 to 3.09 |
| Major agility | 0.89 | 0.63 to 1.23 | 0.98 | 0.71 to 1.33 | 0.98 | 0.71 to 1.33 |
| Moderate agility | 4.72 | 4.04 to 5.49 | 2.46 | 2.05 to 2.91 | 2.85 | 2.42 to 3.31 |
| Self care | 3.74 | 3.14 to 4.43 | 2.03 | 1.59 to 2.55 | 2.30 | 1.85 to 2.81 |
| Age 65 | ||||||
| Institutional care | 1.71 | 1.68 to 1.74 | 1.88 | 1.85 to 1.92 | 1.71 | 1.68 to 1.74 |
| Major mobility | 2.64 | 2.19 to 3.14 | 2.45 | 2.02 to 2.92 | 2.43 | 2.03 to 2.90 |
| Moderate mobility | 2.72 | 2.22 to 3.29 | 1.68 | 1.32 to 2.09 | 2.25 | 1.81 to 2.75 |
| Major agility | 0.70 | 0.47 to 0.99 | 0.76 | 0.51 to 1.08 | 0.76 | 0.51 to 1.08 |
| Moderate agility | 2.87 | 2.39 to 3.40 | 2.19 | 1.77 to 2.65 | 2.52 | 2.08 to 2.99 |
| Self care | 2.31 | 1.88 to 2.81 | 1.75 | 1.32 to 2.25 | 1.95 | 1.51 to 2.44 |