Table 5

Actual 1996 health expectancies compared with projected expectations from 1981 based on two scenarios: (a) mortality decline only since 1981, and (b) mortality decline and an allowance for the effect of de-institutionalisation since 1981—men

Limitation type	Observed (1996) (that is, as in table 3)		(a) Mortality decline only since 1981†		(b) Mortality decline plus de-institutionalisation
Limitation type	HE*	95% interval	HE	95% interval	HE	95% interval
*Estimated health expectancy, reproduced (with 2 decimal places) from third column of table 3: the mean of the posterior distribution for the relevant health expectancy. †1981 Prevalences of functional limitation and institutional care are applied to 1996 mortality data. ‡Adjusted 1981 prevalences of functional limitation are applied to 1996 mortality data and institutional care prevalence data. The adjusted prevalences allow for transfer of people with moderate limitation from institutional care to the non-institutional community.
Age 15
Institutional care	0.69	0.68 to 0.71	0.82	0.80 to 0.84	0.69	0.68 to 0.71
Major mobility	1.08	0.78 to 1.48	1.31	0.99 to 1.71	1.31	0.98 to 1.71
Moderate mobility	2.52	2.00 to 3.14	1.09	0.81 to 1.45	1.31	1.00 to 1.71
Major agility	0.57	0.37 to 0.86	0.55	0.34 to 0.84	0.55	0.34 to 0.84
Moderate agility	3.91	3.20 to 4.69	1.56	1.20 to 1.98	1.73	1.37 to 2.16
Self care	2.72	2.19 to 3.33	2.03	1.59 to 2.54	2.30	1.85 to 2.81
Age 65
Institutional care	0.72	0.70 to 0.74	0.75	0.73 to 0.78	0.72	0.70 to 0.74
Major mobility	0.80	0.55 to 1.13	1.04	0.73 to 1.43	1.04	0.73 to1.44
Moderate mobility	1.64	1.25 to 2.09	0.88	0.57 to 1.29	1.01	0.67 to 1.47
Major agility	0.34	0.19 to 0.57	0.33	0.18 to 0.57	0.33	0.18 to 0.57
Moderate agility	2.59	2.07 to 3.15	1.36	0.98 to 1.88	1.44	1.05 to 1.92
Self care	1.68	1.31 to 2.12	0.86	0.54 to 1.29	0.90	0.58 to 1.33