Table 4

Effects on premature deaths delayed by reducing PM10 in Westminster from 1996–1998 roadside levels to UK standards

Cause of deathAgeSourceReductions to achieve PM10 annual mean objectiveReductions to achieve 24 h PM10 target for 31.12.2004Reductions to achieve 24 h PM10 target for 31.12.2009Effect of reducing pollution to 0 μg/m3
40 μg/m3[gravimetric]20 μg/m3[gravimetric]50 μg/m3[gravimetric] with 35 permitted exceedences50 μg/m3[gravimetric] with 7 permitted exceedencesNo of deaths delayed paDeaths delayed as % of total deaths in a year
Model 1dModel 2dModel 3bModel 4b
*Using effect estimate for PM2.5; APHEA, short term effects of air pollution on health—a European approach; NMMAPS, national morbidity and mortality from air pollution study; COMEAP: committee on the medical effects of air pollution; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; ACS, American Cancer study cohort; HEI, Health Effects Institute.
Total non-traumaticAllLondon1.
APHEA*-2 (lag 0–1)3.3163.96.3292.5%
APHEA-2 (distributed lag 0–40)8.94310177656%
APHEA-2 (distributed lag 0–40, with NO2)4.3205.08.0372.7%
NMMAPS (revised)
Stieb et al3.6174.16.7302.2%
NMMAPS (original) pooled with APHEA-22.8133.25.2241.7%
COPD and asthma⩾65London0.
Total non-traumatic (chronic exosure)All16yr ACS*22106
Six cities study: HEI reanalysis*1780
Kunzli (95% CI)24 (14 to 34)114 (69 to 162)
COMEAP “most likely” effect estimate*627