Total numbers of degrees above (below) cut off point, on days defined as hot (cold) using the given cut off points
| Sofia | London | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day degrees | % increase in mortality per °C (95% CI) | Day degrees | % increase in mortality per °C (95% CI) | |
| Estimated percentage rise (95% CI) in mortality for a daily average of one degree over two days (two weeks) above (below) the cut off point. Heat and cold effects are mutually adjusted. Adjusted models (*) also contains terms for season and long term trends, day of week, public holiday, relative humidity, particulate matter. | ||||
| Using 10th centile of two week mean temperature, 90th centile of two day mean temperature as cut off points: | ||||
| Heat—unadjusted | 347 | −0.79 (−2.07 to 0.51) | 388 | −0.14 (−0.68 to 0.41) |
| Heat—adjusted* | 347 | 3.49 (2.23 to 4.76) | 388 | 1.86 (1.36 to 2.36) |
| Cold—unadjusted | 492 | 4.20 (2.92 to 5.50) | 426 | 5.41 (4.46 to 6.38) |
| Cold—adjusted* | 492 | 1.83 (0.59 to 3.90) | 426 | 4.24 (3.41 to 5.07) |
| Using the V model with common cut off point in both cities: | ||||
| Heat—unadjusted | 1282 | 0.61 (−0.05 to 1.27) | 1044 | 0.91 (0.58 to 1.23) |
| Heat—adjusted* | 1282 | 2.21 (1.55 to 2.87) | 1044 | 1.30 (0.99 to 1.62) |
| Cold—unadjusted | 11776 | 1.16 (0.98 to 1.34) | 8892 | 1.55 (1.39 to 1.71) |
| Cold—adjusted* | 11776 | 0.70 (0.51 to 0.88) | 8892 | 1.43 (1.28 to 1.58) |