Predicted number of probable cases and deaths attributable to SARS in Canada since 25 February 2003 based on the observed trend from 25 February to 6 April 2003, and observed numbers from 25 February to 26 May
| Date | Day | Predicted incident cases | Predicted total cases | Predicted new deaths | Predicted total deaths | Observed total cases | Observed total deaths |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| *The first SARS case in Canada, a 78 year old woman who had returned to Toronto from Hong Kong, first noted symptoms on 25 February 2003.10 Paremeters: Ro (basic reproductive number, the number of new infectious cases per infectious case)=1.5, F (case fatality rate)=30%, i (incubation period, time from infection to symptom)=5 days, and d (duration of SARS, from symptom to recovery or death)=14 days. Predicted numbers are based on the mathematical model. Observed numbers from 25 February to 16 March are given by Poutanen et al10; observed numbers since 17 March are from the WHO web site (http://www.who.int/csr/sarscountry/en/). | |||||||
| Feb 25* | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Mar 2 | 5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Mar 7 | 10 | 2.25 | 4.75 | 0 | 0.00 | 5 | 1 |
| Mar 11 | 14 | 0 | 4.75 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 8 | 1 |
| Mar 12 | 15 | 3.38 | 8.13 | 0 | 0.30 | 8 | 1 |
| Mar 16 | 19 | 0 | 8.13 | 0.45 | 0.75 | 8 | 2 |
| Mar 17 | 20 | 5.06 | 13.19 | 0 | 0.75 | 8 | 2 |
| Mar 21 | 24 | 0 | 13.19 | 0.68 | 1.43 | 9 | 2 |
| Mar 22 | 25 | 7.59 | 20.78 | 0 | 1.43 | 9 | 2 |
| Mar 26 | 29 | 0 | 20.78 | 1.01 | 2.44 | 19 | 3 |
| Mar 27 | 30 | 11.39 | 32.17 | 0 | 2.44 | 28 | 3 |
| Mar 31 | 34 | 0 | 32.17 | 1.52 | 3.96 | 44 | 4 |
| Apr 1 | 35 | 17.09 | 49.26 | 0 | 3.96 | 53 | 4 |
| Apr 5 | 39 | 0 | 49.26 | 2.28 | 6.23 | 74 | 7 |
| Apr 6 | 40 | 25.63 | 74.89 | 0 | 6.23 | 74 | 7 |
| Apr 10 | 44 | 0 | 74.89 | 3.42 | 9.65 | 97 | 10 |
| Apr 11 | 45 | 38.44 | 113.33 | 0 | 9.65 | 98 | 10 |
| Apr 15 | 49 | 0 | 113.33 | 5.13 | 14.78 | 100 | 13 |
| Apr 16 | 50 | 57.67 | 171.00 | 0 | 14.78 | 103 | 13 |
| Apr 20 | 54 | 0 | 171.00 | 7.69 | 22.47 | 132 | 12 |
| Apr 21 | 55 | 86.50 | 257.49 | 0 | 22.47 | 132 | 12 |
| Apr 25 | 59 | 0 | 257.49 | 11.53 | 34.00 | 140 | 15 |
| Apr 26 | 60 | 129.75 | 387.24 | 0 | 34.00 | 142 | 18 |
| Apr 30 | 64 | 0 | 387.24 | 17.30 | 51.30 | 148 | 20 |
| May 1 | 65 | 194.62 | 581.86 | 0 | 51.30 | 147 | 20 |
| May 5 | 69 | 0 | 581.86 | 25.95 | 77.25 | 148 | 22 |
| May 6 | 70 | 291.93 | 873.79 | 0 | 77.25 | 148 | 22 |
| May 10 | 74 | 0 | 873.79 | 38.92 | 116.17 | 145 | 22 |
| May 11 | 75 | 437.89 | 1311.68 | 0 | 116.17 | 145 | 22 |
| May 15 | 79 | 0 | 1311.68 | 58.39 | 174.56 | 142 | 23 |
| May 16 | 80 | 656.84 | 1968.52 | 0 | 174.56 | 140 | 23 |
| May 20 | 84 | 0 | 1968.52 | 87.58 | 262.14 | 140 | 23 |
| May 21 | 85 | 985.26 | 2953.78 | 0 | 262.14 | 140 | 23 |
| May 25 | 89 | 0 | 2953.78 | 131.37 | 393.50 | 140 | 23 |
| May 26 | 90 | 1477.89 | 4431.68 | 0 | 393.50 | 148 | 26 |
| May 30 | 94 | 0 | 4431.68 | 197.05 | 590.56 | ||
| May 31 | 95 | 2216.84 | 6648.51 | 0 | 590.56 | ||
| Jun 4 | 99 | 0 | 6648.51 | 295.58 | 886.14 | ||
| Jun 5 | 100 | 3325.26 | 9973.77 | 0 | 886.14 | ||
| Jun 9 | 104 | 0 | 9973.77 | 443.37 | 1329.50 | ||
| Jun 10 | 105 | 4987.89 | 14961.66 | 0 | 1329.50 | ||
| Jun 14 | 109 | 0 | 14961.66 | 665.05 | 1994.55 | ||
| Jun 15 | 110 | 7481.83 | 22443.48 | 0 | 1994.55 | ||
| Jun 19 | 114 | 0 | 22443.48 | 997.58 | 2992.13 | ||
| Jun 20 | 115 | 11222.74 | 33666.22 | 0 | 2992.13 | ||
| Jun 24 | 119 | 0 | 33666.22 | 1496.37 | 4488.50 | ||
| Jun 25 | 120 | 16834.11 | 50500.34 | 0 | 4488.50 | ||