Predicted number of SARS deaths using Ro=3, i=5 days, F=10% and d=14 days
| Number of incubation period (t) | Day | Predicted incident cases (Ct⋅i) | Predicted new deaths (Dt⋅i+d) | Predicted total deaths (D) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| *Cases from day 0 are removed on day 14, after one disease duration (14 days). The one case from day 0 is expected to produce 0.1 death (1×10%) and 0.9 recovered people. Similarly, the three cases from day 5 are expected to produce on day 19 (after 14 days) 0.3 death and 2.7 recovered people. | ||||
| 0 | 0 (=t×i) | 1 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 14 (=t×i+d) | 0 | 0.1 (=1×F)* | 0.1 | |
| 3 | 15 | 27 | 0 | 0.1 |
| 19 | 0 | 0.3 (=3×F)* | 0.4 | |