Estimate of incidence applied to Rotherham and corresponding effect on procedures, etc
| Study | Implied Rotherham incidence | Activity required to meet the estimated unmet need of patients with CHD in Rotherham given different incidence studies (“extra” is the difference from current provision. A negative sign means the model predicts fewer investigations or procedures than currently provided) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPD referrals | Exercise ECG | Scans | Angiograms | PTCAs | CABGs | CABGs+PTCAs | % Difference from current | ||||||||||||||||||||
| estimate | extra | estimate | extra | estimate | extra | estimate | extra | estimate | extra | estimate | extra | estimate | extra | ||||||||||||||
| Current activity | — | 1 044 | 677 | 89 | 235 | 29 | 87 | 116 | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| NHSME (1994) | 430 | 568 | −476 | 318 | −309 | 48 | −40 | 128 | −107 | 16 | −13 | 47 | −40 | 63 | −53 | −46 | |||||||||||
| Fry (1976) | 650 | 1 048 | 4 | 680 | 3 | 149 | 1 | 236 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 87 | 0 | 116 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||
| Rose (1968) (1%) | 1937 | 3 859 | 2 815 | 2502 | 1825 | 329 | 240 | 867 | 634 | 107 | 78 | 322 | 235 | 429 | 313 | +270 | |||||||||||
| Grieg (1980) | 2006 | 4 009 | 2 965 | 2600 | 1923 | 342 | 253 | 902 | 667 | 111 | 82 | 334 | 247 | 445 | 329 | +283 | |||||||||||
| Marmot (1997) | 4193 | 8 785 | 7 741 | 5697 | 5020 | 749 | 660 | 1977 | 1742 | 244 | 215 | 732 | 645 | 976 | 860 | +740 | |||||||||||
| Rose (1968) (3.6%) | 6973 | 14 856 | 13 812 | 9633 | 8956 | 1266 | 1177 | 3344 | 3109 | 413 | 384 | 1238 | 1151 | 1651 | 1535 | +1323 | |||||||||||