Table A1

Parameters of the poisson-regression analysis (SE in parentheses)

Type of model αij at age 705-150 βij(se) Mij ςij
Incidence of disabilityGomp+Mak5-151 −2.945 (0.0399)0.0859  (0.00333)0.0237NA
Mortality among non-disabledGompertz−3.813 (0.0718)0.1078 (0.00698)NANA
Recovery from disabilitySigmoid−0.906 (0.0546)−0.1052 (0.00453)NA0.5056
Mortality among disabledGompertz−2.505 (0.0663)0.0577 (0.00507)NANA
Incidence of disabilityGomp+Mak5-152 −2.487 (0.0323)0.0725 (0.00283)0.0192NA
Mortality among non-disabledGompertz−4.642 (0.1199)0.1097 (0.01153)NANA
Recovery from disabilitySigmoid−0.627 (0.0429)−0.1085 (0.00344)NA0.3384
Mortality among disabledGompertz−3.308 (0.0730)0.0747 (0.00520)NANA
  • NA, not applicable.

  • 5-150 Age was transformed to age 70.

  • 5-151 Gomp+Mak, Gompertz-Makeham.

  • 5-152 For women the p value for the Makeham constant was 0.015 (that is, larger than the significance level of 0.01). To obtain models of the same type for men and women we kept this constant for women as well.