RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 OP79 Estimating the impact of the mandatory menu calorie labelling policy on adult obesity prevalence, cardiovascular mortality, and their social disparities in the United Kingdom: a modelling study JF Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health JO J Epidemiol Community Health FD BMJ Publishing Group Ltd SP A39 OP A39 DO 10.1136/jech-2023-SSMabstracts.78 VO 77 IS Suppl 1 A1 Colombet, Zoe A1 Robinson, Eric A1 Kypridemos, Chris A1 Jones, Andrew A1 O’Flaherty, Martin YR 2023 UL http://jech.bmj.com/content/77/Suppl_1/A39.1.abstract AB Background England implemented a mandatory menu calorie labelling policy in large out-of-home food businesses in April 2022, requiring large businesses to provide calorie information on individual menu items. We aimed to estimate policy impact on population-level obesity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, as well as socio-economic equity of effects in the adult English population.Methods We built a comparative assessment model to quantify the relative effects of the implementation of this policy over 20 years (2022–2042) using two main scenarios:1) ‘Current implementation’: reflect the actual policy deployment plan in England (implementation only in the large food businesses).2) ‘Full implementation’: model the deployment of the policy in every out-of-home food business in England.For each scenario, we modelled the impact of the policy through changes in dietary intake due to (1) consumer behaviour and (2) reformulation of out-of-home food by retailers. We used nationally representative mortality, demographic, and dietary data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS); policy effects on consumer diets and retailers’ reformulation were from published systematic reviews. To estimate the uncertainty of different model parameters, a Monte Carlo approach was used (2,500 iterations). Analyses were performed using R.Results The current implementation of menu calorie labelling in large out-of-home food businesses would reduce obesity prevalence by 0.30 percentage points (absolute) [95% Uncertainty Interval (UI): -0.33; -0.27] and this would prevent or postpone approximately 1,075 CVD deaths [95% UI: 1,065; 1,086] in the next 20 years. However, obesity prevalence reduction would be fourteen times higher if calorie labelling was implemented in all out-of-home food businesses (-4.10 percentage points [95% UI: -4.50; -3.70]) and mortality reduction would be fifteen times higher (16,500 deaths prevented or postponed [95% UI: 16,350; 16,650]). These policy effects are mostly due to changes in consumer behaviour as a result of labelling, rather than food reformulation. These results were similar in the most and the least deprived sociodemographic groups, indicating that this policy should not increase inequalities of obesity prevalence or mortality in England.Conclusion This work offers the first estimation of the impact of recently implemented national menu calorie labelling policy, on the adult population in England. Our evidence demonstrates the policy will significantly reduce obesity prevalence and saves lives, without widening health inequalities. However, results emphasize the need for the government to be more ambitious by generalising this policy to all food businesses.