RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 The contribution of changes to tax and social security to stalled life expectancy trends in Scotland: a modelling study JF Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health JO J Epidemiol Community Health FD BMJ Publishing Group Ltd SP 365 OP 370 DO 10.1136/jech-2020-214770 VO 75 IS 4 A1 Richardson, Elizabeth A1 Taulbut, Martin A1 Robinson, Mark A1 Pulford, Andrew A1 McCartney, Gerry YR 2021 UL http://jech.bmj.com/content/75/4/365.abstract AB Background Life expectancy (LE) improvements have stalled, and UK tax and welfare ‘reforms’ have been proposed as a cause. We estimated the effects of tax and welfare reforms from 2010/2011 to 2021/2022 on LE and inequalities in LE in Scotland.Methods We applied a published estimate of the cumulative income impact of the reforms to the households within Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintiles. We estimated the impact on LE by applying a rate ratio for the impact of income on mortality rates (by age group, sex and SIMD quintile) and calculating the difference between inflation-only changes in benefits and the reforms.Results We estimated that changes to household income resulting from the reforms would result in an additional 1041 (+3.7%) female deaths and 1013 (+3.8%) male deaths. These deaths represent an estimated reduction of female LE from 81.6 years to 81.2 years (−20 weeks), and male LE from 77.6 years to 77.2 years (−23 weeks). Cuts to benefits and tax credits were modelled to have the most detrimental impact on LE, and these were estimated to be most severe in the most deprived areas. The modelled impact on inequalities in LE was widening of the gap between the most and least deprived 20% of areas by a further 21 weeks for females and 23 weeks for males.Interpretation This study provides further evidence that austerity, in the form of cuts to social security benefits, is likely to be an important cause of stalled LE across the UK.