TY - JOUR T1 - Causal analysis of H1N1pdm09 influenza infection risk in a household cohort JF - Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health JO - J Epidemiol Community Health SP - 272 LP - 277 DO - 10.1136/jech-2014-204678 VL - 69 IS - 3 AU - Yohann Mansiaux AU - Nicolas Salez AU - Nathanael Lapidus AU - Michel Setbon AU - Laurent Andreoletti AU - Marianne Leruez-Ville AU - Simon Cauchemez AU - Marie-Lise Gougeon AU - Frédéric Vély AU - Michael Schwarzinger AU - Laurent Abel AU - Rosemary Markovic Delabre AU - Antoine Flahault AU - Xavier de Lamballerie AU - Fabrice Carrat Y1 - 2015/03/01 UR - http://jech.bmj.com/content/69/3/272.abstract N2 - Background Obtaining a comprehensive quantitative figure of the determinants of influenza infection will help identify priority targets for future influenza mitigation interventions. We developed an original causal model integrating highly diverse factors and their dependencies, to identify the most critical determinants of pandemic influenza infection (H1N1pdm09) during the 2010–2011 influenza season. Methods We used data from 601 households (1450 participants) included in a dedicated cohort. Structural equations were used to model direct and indirect relationships between infection and risk perception, compliance with preventive behaviours, social contacts, indoor and outdoor environment, sociodemographic factors and pre-epidemic host susceptibility. Standardised estimates (βstd) were used to assess the strength of associations (ranging from −1 for a completely negative association to 1 for a completely positive association). Results Host susceptibility to H1N1pdm09 and compliance with preventive behaviours were the only two factors directly associated with the infection risk (βstd=0.31 and βstd=−0.21). Compliance with preventive behaviours was influenced by risk perception and preventive measures perception (βstd=0.14 and βstd=0.27). The number and duration of social contacts were not associated with H1N1pdm09 infection. Conclusions Our findings suggest that influenza vaccination in addition to public health communication campaigns focusing on personal preventive measures should be prioritised as potentially efficient interventions to mitigate influenza epidemics. ER -