RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Using natural experiments to evaluate population health interventions: new Medical Research Council guidance
JF Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
JO J Epidemiol Community Health
FD BMJ Publishing Group Ltd
SP 1182
OP 1186
DO 10.1136/jech-2011-200375
VO 66
IS 12
A1 Peter Craig
A1 Cyrus Cooper
A1 David Gunnell
A1 Sally Haw
A1 Kenny Lawson
A1 Sally Macintyre
A1 David Ogilvie
A1 Mark Petticrew
A1 Barney Reeves
A1 Matt Sutton
A1 Simon Thompson
YR 2012
UL http://jech.bmj.com/content/66/12/1182.abstract
AB Natural experimental studies are often recommended as a way of understanding the health impact of policies and other large scale interventions. Although they have certain advantages over planned experiments, and may be the only option when it is impossible to manipulate exposure to the intervention, natural experimental studies are more susceptible to bias. This paper introduces new guidance from the Medical Research Council to help researchers and users, funders and publishers of research evidence make the best use of natural experimental approaches to evaluating population health interventions. The guidance emphasises that natural experiments can provide convincing evidence of impact even when effects are small or take time to appear. However, a good understanding is needed of the process determining exposure to the intervention, and careful choice and combination of methods, testing of assumptions and transparent reporting is vital. More could be learnt from natural experiments in future as experience of promising but lesser used methods accumulates.