RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Rapid estimation of excess mortality: nowcasting during the heatwave alert in England and Wales in June 2011
JF Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
JO J Epidemiol Community Health
FD BMJ Publishing Group Ltd
SP 866
OP 868
DO 10.1136/jech-2011-200962
VO 66
IS 10
A1 Helen K Green
A1 Nick J Andrews
A1 Graham Bickler
A1 Richard G Pebody
YR 2012
UL http://jech.bmj.com/content/66/10/866.abstract
AB Background A Heat-Health Watch system has been established in England and Wales since 2004 as part of the national heatwave plan following the 2003 European-wide heatwave. One important element of this plan has been the development of a timely mortality surveillance system. This article reports the findings and timeliness of a daily mortality model used to ‘nowcast’ excess mortality (utilising incomplete surveillance data to estimate the number of deaths in near-real time) during a heatwave alert issued by the Met Office for regions in South and East England on 24 June 2011.Methods Daily death registrations were corrected for reporting delays with historical data supplied by the General Registry Office. These corrected counts were compared with expected counts from an age-specific linear regression model to ascertain if any excess had occurred during the heatwave.Results Excess mortality of 367 deaths was detected across England and Wales in ≥85-year-olds on 26 and 27 June 2011, coinciding with the period of elevated temperature. This excess was localised to the east of England and London. It was detected 3 days after the heatwave.Conclusion A daily mortality model was sensitive and timely enough to rapidly detect a small excess, both, at national and regional levels. This tool will be useful when future events of public health significance occur.