RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Predictive risk algorithms in a population setting: an overview
JF Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
JO J Epidemiol Community Health
FD BMJ Publishing Group Ltd
SP 859
OP 865
DO 10.1136/jech-2012-200971
VO 66
IS 10
A1 Manuel, Douglas G
A1 Rosella, Laura C
A1 Hennessy, Deirdre
A1 Sanmartin, Claudia
A1 Wilson, Kumanan
YR 2012
UL http://jech.bmj.com/content/66/10/859.abstract
AB Background The widespread use of risk algorithms in clinical medicine is testimony to how they have helped transform clinical decision-making. Risk algorithms have a similar but underdeveloped potential to support decision-making for population health.Objective To describe the role of predictive risk algorithms in a population setting.Methods First, predictive risk algorithms and how clinicians use them are described. Second, the population uses of risk algorithms are described, highlighting the strengths of risk algorithms for health planning. Lastly, the way in which predictive risk algorithms are developed is discussed briefly and a guide for algorithm assessment in population health presented.Conclusion For the past 20 years, absolute and baseline risk has been a cornerstone of population health planning. The most accurate and discriminating method to generate such estimates is the use of multivariable risk algorithms. Routinely collected data can be used to develop algorithms with characteristics that are well suited to health planning and such data are increasingly available. The widespread use of risk algorithms in clinical medicine is testimony to how they have helped transform clinical decision-making. Risk algorithms have a similar but underdeveloped potential to support decision-making for population health.